Did Obama Get It Right?

From the perspective of a President encumbered by contentious politics, perhaps so.

As a constitutional scholar, not so.

As a risk manager, no.

He gave a very good speech, intending to and appearing thoughtful, balanced, confident and supportive of his beleaguered intelligence and security personnel.  He covered all the bases -- national interests, international responsibilities to allies and cautions to adversaries, corporate and trade interests, civil rights.  But so many interests to balance means compromises, in this case, of our civil liberties.

Obama compromised 4th Amendment rights, the cornerstone of citizens' protection against intrusive officials and agencies of the government.  Warrants must be specific to individuals, with well-founded suspicion spelled out.  NSA and the FISA court can continue to flaunt that.

The tougher issue is risk management.  What do we pay for "protection?"  TSA inconvenience; billions spent on a runaway intelligence industry that remains unaccountable with fat government contracts, consultants galore, and inept suppliers like those that brought us the insurance exchange or didn't monitor Mr. Snowden or identify traitors like Pfc. Manning.  Vigilante drone strikes that feed antipathy and an unending mentality of war (which I do believe Obama searches for ways to exit.)  So far, this "protection" has failed to stop armed Jockey shorts, Boston marathon bombers, and Times Sq. propane armed SUVs.

Risk management entails probability.  What is the probability of setting off a dirty bomb?  At worst, one would contaminate a downtown area and be survivable for all but hundreds, a few thousand at most, but not hundreds of thousands. What's the probability of terrorists getting and smuggling in a full-fledged atom bomb?  What's the probability of non-state terrorists getting an ICBM with nuclear warhead and launching it undetected?  Low, low, low.  If we were truly in a risk management mode, we would pay only a fraction of the costs and inconveniences and civil liberty infringements we suffer.  But, alas, no President could survive the heat of having another tragic attack happen on his watch.  And that's the conundrum: if it can be imagined, he has no choice but to ignore probability and pose as "protecting" us from it ,no matter how remote it might be and no matter what the cost.

Will Obama's announcements change anything at the NSA?  Probably not.  My friend Frank Novosel observed that " those guys aren't sitting around figuring out how to play by the rules.  No, they're figuring out how to get around them, 'cause if they miss the intelligence, their goose is cooked."

As a nation, we are weakened by our "security"; oh to be a Denmark or Sweden or Switzerland, free of being the world's policeman with a bull's-eye on his back.  But there it is ... so Mr. President did about as well as one could expect given a no-win situation.  He didn't get it right because there is no right... only the least of several wrongs.