Fletch's Instability Index

So who will next feel the sting of Arab Springers or Wall Street Occupiers? Turkey? Spain? France? These demonstrations have resonated around the world: dissatisfied, educated young people, mainly men in the vanguard, threatening the status quo. To some, welcome; to others, unwelcome – but to all, disquieting because who knows what might emerge from such instability?

Among my Olympic Club chums there is the full range of reactions and predictions. “Significant” “Meaningless” “World awakening” “Nothing will change” As I reflect on it all, it seems to me that in the yeasty brew of underlying causes, there are four main ingredients: youth, education, unemployment, and mal-distributed income. This is an oversimplification, to be sure, but I wondered if one could quantify these into a single measure of a nation’s predisposition to instability. Hence, Fletch’s rudimentary “Instability Index.”

My numbers are provocative. Using Japan as a base (100) my instability index suggests that the US,with an index of 242, is two and a half times more potentially unstable than Japan. Our neighbor Canada is only at 167 because its median age is a bit higher than ours and its income more evenly distributed. I used Japan as base because it has relatively mild youth unemployment, a relatively balanced society by age, and a reasonably fair distribution of income. Here are some of the highs and lows of the 59 countries for which I calculated my Instability Index.

High rel. to Japan
South Africa: 479 Algeria: 407 Jordan: 361 Spain: 357 Iraq: 340
Puerto Rico: 318 Columbia: 316 India: 304 Ireland: 290

Low rel. to Japan
Thailand: 53 Netherlands: 59 Austria: 70 Switzerland: 72
Norway: 73 Germany: 81 Ukraine: 81 Turkey: 84 Denmark: 87

I mined the CIA Worldbook for my raw data. (An invaluable resource, one of the few admirable and public services the CIA provides; if you don’t know of it, give it a try -- www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/.) I derived a “youthfulness” measure by taking male median age relative to male life expectancy. To that, I applied the literacy rate among men (in mid-east countries, especially, there are distressing differences between men’s and women’s literacy.) Also equally weighted was the unemployment percentage for men 15 to 24. Lastly, I applied with equal weight the Gini index, i.e., the measure of how unequally distributed is family income in the society.

My simplistic theory is that the higher the proportion of young men, educated but without a job, and aware of how income is mal-distributed in their society, the more likely they are to destabilize that society by acting out their frustrations and discontent.
What I find in examining the numbers is that unemployment and mal-distribution of income drive the results. Of course, my numbers are dependent on how one weighs the factors. And that deserves debate – which I hope you, dear reader, will engage in with me by commenting below. I will e-mail the spread sheet to any who wish it. Just give me your e-mail address in the comment section below.

For wonks, like me, the raw data are fascinating. For example, Asian nations, especially the poorer ones like Bangladesh, India or Viet Nam, have very low unemployment rates. Perhaps in such societies one is either working or perishing. (Accordingly, I have tossed them out of the table above; apparently they don’t have the luxury of demonstrating or occupying.) Another item: male life expectancy is pretty even across cultures and between developed and developing societies, running from the low to upper 70s, suggesting that medical advances are well shared. But three shocking exceptions: Ukraine (62), Russia (60), and South Africa (50!) Another item: as we know, the US is an outlier when it comes to the Gini index; no other developed nation among the 59 has a more unequal distribution of family incomes.

Of course, many unquantifiable factors either moderate or exacerbate the potential for instability. A cultural pattern of acceptance of autocracy or the momentum of improvement might deter acting out. In other societies, demonstrations may be a way of life. Thus, we might not expect to see demonstrations and unrest in Saudi Arabia at a 204 or Morocco at a 213 whereas the UK at 213 has already had its share of disturbances and occupiers.

Crude as it is, this index exercise stimulated interesting speculation: where do we go from here? Jordan? Turkey? Spain? Where is the next tinder likely to be lit by frustrated young men and women who are mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore? Stay tuned, for our world isn’t getting any duller.