Wanted: an Angry, International, Teen-Age, Nuclear Activist

 Wanted: a Nuclear Greta Thunberg

Two potential disasters threaten the existence of mankind. One we can do nothing about; the other we can and must.

No, neither pandemic nor global warming threaten the existence of man. Global warming, already disrupting us, will cause more and more death and destruction but mankind will likely survive just as we survived the ice age 15,000 years ago.  Likewise, though immunologists warn us that pandemics will increase in frequency, big pharma (love’em or hate’m) has armed us with messenger RNA technology for fast development of vaccines. We will certainly suffer but survive future viral pandemics.

The two truly existential threats are a catastrophic asteroid collision and a nuclear Armageddon.  The first we can do nothing about (except nourish science fiction and our nightmares.)  The most recent close shave was with 2020QG on August 16^th last year; we didn’t spot it until six hours after it had already cruised by! (Incidentally, 2021GW4, a 16-footer, small but still very dangerous, will swing by today, as I write this.)

The second existential threat, nuclear Armageddon, i.e., genetic mutation and nuclear winter, we can and must do something about. Must, because it's imminent and must, because we can. We have the knowledge; what is required is an aroused, worldwide public demand to delegitimize nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Armageddon is very real, very near, and increasingly likely. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ metaphorical Doomsday Clock has been moved forward to 100 seconds before midnight -- mankind’s annihilation – the nearest in its 74-year history. (In 1991, the clock was re-set from seven to 17 minutes, its longest, reflecting the end of the cold war. Think of that: from 1,020 seconds to 100 over the past thirty years.)

So why isn’t the public aroused?  Because we’ve been living with the threat for 3/4ths of a century. Because it’s sober, serious greybeards who have been issuing the warnings: people like Sam Nunn and Ted Turner of NTI, Helen Caldicott of Physicians for Social Responsibility, Andrei Sakharov and Robert Oppenheimer, Sen. Merkle of the Arms Control Assoc., and so many others.  But as the history of global warming concern shows us, eminent and knowledgeable authorities are necessary but not sufficient.

Wallace Smith Broecker called out the connection between abrupt climate change and the Ocean Conveyor Belt half a century ago and sounded the alarm about greenhouse gasses before Congress in 1984. Astrid Caldas of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Peter Kalmus of NASA, and innumerable other scientists joined the call for action. Al Gore and his PowerPoint slides; Gaylord Nelson, Peter McClosky, and our own Denis Hayes (now of the Bullitt Foundation) with their Earth Day; and those worthies of the UN Climate Change conferences, Kyoto and the rest – all got nothing from political leaders other than lip service.  Until, that is, along comes a 14-yearold Swede with a raw, j’accuse attitude to point an angry finger at us, the older generations who created this threatening mess for her and her Gen Z compatriots.  Arouse them Greta Thunberg did!

The lesson is clear.  Politicians with their short-term next-election or vote-of-confidence horizons are not going to act until young people get mad. They, in turn, get their parents mad and irreversible public demand for action builds.  Witness: the Viet Nam war protests started with campus teach-ins. Witness the student lunch counter sit-ins and SNCC voter registration crusades. What followed was public support, demands for action, and change.

What we now need is a Nuclear Greta Thunberg to back up the scientists and prophets of nuclear Armageddon with angry pressure on politicians worldwide.

Take little solace from Biden and Putin having extended New-START by five years: that’s nothing but a band-aid. It’s time to rip off scabs. Triage and emergency treatments must begin on:

·       Biden’s endorsement of a $1 trillion program for “sustainment, replacement and upgrades” of our nuclear arsenal, which includes our antiquated (still necessary?), silo-bound ICBMs.

·       Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade levels.

·       China’s development of war-head-capable cruise missiles and – a recent development – construction of a field of 100 ICBM silos in the desert of China’s northwest province of Gansu.

·       Putin’s development of Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed, super-sonic cruise missile of indeterminate range.

·       Northrup Grumman’s Air Force contract for development of a replacement for the Minuteman ICBM.

·       Indian and Russian collaborative development of BrahMos, an air, ship, or land launched super-sonic cruise missile.

·       Pakistan’s and India’s continued build-up of warhead inventories and development of new delivery vehicles.

·       North Korea’s continued testing and development of warhead delivery systems, including submarine launched cruise missiles.

·       Saudi, Turkish, and Japanese internal pressures to become nuclear.

·       US development of the new Columbia class of nuclear submarine.

·       China’s construction of large aircraft carriers with nuclear-capable, carrier-based aircraft.

·       Russia’s and China’s testing of anti-satellite missiles.

·       Raytheon’s contract for development of the ALCM 1000, an air-launched cruise missile, and the Nat’l Nuclear Security Administration’s $11.2 b development of new warhead for it.

·       China’s and US’s weaponization of space initiatives, and planned heavy-lift establishment of moon bases.

·       US response to the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons which came into effect this past January 21^st.

·       US, NATO, and Russian refusals to declare a no-first-use policy.

Aren’t Russia’s and our 4,000 warheads a bit much when 200 or fewer going off simultaneously are all it takes to trigger a nuclear winter???

 

WANTED

An Angry, International, Teen-aged, Nuclear Activist

Until she comes along, riles up Gen Zers around the world, and together they de-legitimize nuclear weapons, the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock will continue its creep toward midnight.