The Coad Table Idealist and Realist Agree: Time for a Change of Direction

Earlier this week ten friends gathered for the first time after nearly two years of Zooming, to renew and re-launch an in-person Coad Table. 

The Coad Table . . . 

. . . meets every six weeks to discuss our response to and responsibilities in international affairs. The group is named in honor of Tom Coad who with Don McLaren founded the group years ago as a monthly, over-dinner discussion. Both Don and Tom were past-Presidents of the World Affairs Council; Tom’s particular interests were over-population and nuclear hegemony. Don’s, the forging of collaborative efforts to address conflict. Both, sadly, are gone but their legacy of concerns is carried on by fifteen or so of us old white guys. (Care to join? Give me a call. The younger and more colorful, the better.) 

Climate Change 

Last Tuesday, our impossibly broad subject was climate change and global warming. Eight of us catalogued the obstacles to meeting the +4°F Paris and Glasgow goal, but implicitly accepted that our course was to proceed and overcome those obstacles, as difficult and unlikely as that might be. Two of us, I in this camp, demurred: the war on global warming has been lost; it’s time for a change in direction. 

The Global Warming War Has Been Lost 

At risk of being called defeatist and isolationist, both of which labels I reject, let me argue my view. First, we already have used up half of the +4° leeway set in Paris at COP 21 (the United Nations Climate Change Conference, 2015) and re-affirmed at last month at Glasgow. We are more than +1°C (1.6° F) above pre-industrial 1890 temperature on average, and some areas of the world ahead of that. A neat way to see what’s happening around the world is to open and peruse these quick, “post card” bites of information on climate experiences in each UN member nation 

Second, the developed nations’ 2015 pledges of financial support for lesser developed nations have not yet been paid. The need for and costs of investment escalate as global warming proceeds. We aren’t about to catch up. 

Third, the developed world does not exhibit the will needed to dramatically move to zero emissions. Mandates are eschewed; carbon tax proposals are shelved. One of our Coad Table guys observed that there are three parts to the puzzle: the natural, long cycles of earth’s evolution; our man-made environment and technological change; and the social compact to act together. We can’t control the first. We may have some better tools coming on stream, such as batteries for storing wind and solar power, new methods for re-cycling water and minimizing fresh water usage, etc. Bill Gates, writing in his latest Gates Notes blog, holds out hope for technological silver bullets, mainly in energy generation, that will get us to net-zero by 2050. 

But the roadblock is that social element: the will to undertake drastic, bold action. There is no prospect for marshalling such will world-wide, nor among the top five polluting economies – the US, China, India, EU, and Russia. We will be +4°F long before 2050. The war on global warming has already been lost. There is going to be more destruction, increasing dislocation, growing distress. The US strategy must now change and focus on our own welfare. This doesn’t mean abandoning the world but first making sure that as few as possible of our own become climate war victims. 

A Change of Direction 

Last week, I attended a World Affairs Council panel discussion on what local companies were doing on climate change. On the panel were the top climate change officers (with various titles) of Boeing, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alaska Airlines. The four talked about re-cycling; cutting use of plastics; using renewable sources of energy; developing “sustainable aviation fuel” (whatever that is); converting to electric vehicle fleets; constructing green buildings; and so on – all good things in pursuit of forestalling global warming. 

When question time came, I asked “if your CEO or board directed you to focus on anticipating, avoiding, and mitigating damage from climate change, how would that change what you do? It was four deer caught in the headlights – motionless, staring, silent. Finally, Amazon’s Chris Davis, Sr. Mgr., Sustainability Policy, said something like this: we’d have to start with and really step-up risk assessment. Mind: this was two days before the tornados in Tennessee and Kentucky, one of which flattened an Amazon distribution center, killing six employees. 

What dangers? 

Prepping for the Coad Table discussion, I listed for myself nine categories of climate damages and dangers to the US, and some steps that might be taken. Were we to try nothing, chaos, destruction and distress are guaranteed. Here is my list, in no particular order, which means Davis, of Amazon, nailed it: risk assessment is key to sorting out goals and priorities: 

• Water -- Ocean level 

    Develop and install estuary gates a la Netherlands and Venice 

    Protection and renovation of locks, docks, cargo piers 

    Levees to be raised and, in some cases, removed to restore wetlands as storm water diversion 

    Zoning and insurance

        No re-building on barrier islands and coastal plains – as homes destroyed, no replacement 

        State insurance commissioners use punitive rates to re-locate populations 

        Subsidized re-location programs 

• Water – storm surge 

    Increase capacity of storm drain systems 

    Protection of industrial plants – especially nuclear and other power plants 

    Protection of city infrastructure 

        Levee subway accesses 

• Drought 

    Watershed process for resolving allocation issues 

    Desalinization plant investment 

• Wildfires 

    Zoning in unincorporated areas

    Increasing manpower and capacity of forest fire fighting orgs 

    Fireproofing electrical grids 

• Fertility zone changes 

    Beef up USDA county Ag Agents 

    Increase funded crop research 

• Frequent and severe storms: tornados, hurricanes, thunderstorms 

    Power and Grid vulnerability 

    Industrial Plant vulnerability 

    Catalog high potential damage zones 

• Migration 

    Guest worker program 

    Climate refugee rights accord 

    Interdiction of illegal immigration 

• Domestic terrorism and cultural conflict 

• Species extinction and diversity 

    Weight in risk assessment? 

    Protection of ranges in face of migration and new fertility zone pressures  

A New Direction 

Such enormous projects of risk assessment, damage avoidance, mitigation and emergency response require a national consensus and extraordinary leadership to forge it. Some of Coad Table group cautioned that autocracy and armed forces enforcement might be called for. But autocracy is not required if a consensus on the threat to the commonweal and a clearly defined purpose can be articulated and a compelling call to patriotism be made. This doesn’t mean stopping research into clean energy and carbon footprint reduction; it does mean setting new priorities and undertaking new investments and expenditures at local, state and federal levels. 

How will all this be paid for? First, weight priorities for the new infrastructure authorization toward projects that have climate damage mitigation effects.  Next: how about forgoing the ten-year, $3 trillion ICBM modernization program, decommissioning that third and increasingly obsolete leg of the triad, and relying on submarine-launched nukes and air-launched cruise missiles and strategic bombing as our deterrents? Freeing up $300 billion a year will go far to paying the bill for a comprehensive climate damage strategy. Reducing the risk of unintentional nuclear exchange would be a welcome dividend. 

Does this mean turning inward and isolationist? Not necessarily. How about curtailing all military assistance programs and replacing them dollar for dollar with climate disaster preparation assistance? That would buy a far larger and more valuable impact. How about closing the War College and creating a Climate Adaptation College for both domestic and foreign designees? 

The Third Label . . . 

. . . I will be tagged with is alarmist. Yes; the alarm bells need to be rung. I am alarmed. Now a third of the way round my 88th orbit of the Sun, I likely won’t be here to see what happens, but your and my children will be. Our grandchildren are potential victims. And my great-grandchildren? 

And the Fourth Label? Idealist 

OK, guilty. My friend Bill R recently said “when you are confronted with an idealist, run for your life!” But we have no place to run to. All I’ve suggested here is feasible even though unlikely. 

Bill is a realist. But Bill and Fletch, the realist and the alarmed idealist, were the two Coad Table outliers who said climate change is here; the war to forestall global warming is already lost; it’s time for a change of priority. And that change is to ring the alarm and engage Americans in a crusade to mitigate the damage that global warming is already beginning to wreak upon us. 

PS If you find this provocative, pass it along to an acquaintance, preferably one of those Gen Z’ers who will inherit this mess we’ve been making. They are the promising ones of passion and idealism.

Connections Enmesh

Life and art and death and ceremony – over the last three weeks, separate threads have woven about me a web of connections, a net not unlike that in which Moby Dick ensnared Fedallah, the shaman. Moby Dick?! Yes, Moby Dick.

The G.A.N?

All began when I read a NYT review of Albert and The Whale in which Philip Hoare explores fabulous animals in renaissance art, the genius of Durer, the mystery of the whale. Hoare, a British polymath, follows rabbit trails into art history, German literature, cetology (look it up) and more, but merges them back again and again into his mainline of thought.  Thoroughly engaged, I next ordered up from the library his earlier book, The Whale – all one would want to learn about whaling. The skeleton of that book is Moby Dick, so that led to diving again into 600 pages of Melville.

This all at a time when daughter, Amy, and favorite son-in-law, Jeff Stoner were laying plans for their first salt-water foray into our Salish Sea’s San Juan Islands. Amy’s desire was to see southern resident killer whales. They twice encountered a pod of orcas, a good omen. Their visit culminated in a wonderful birthday dinner prepared by them and shipmates/dear Mpls friends, Colleen and Jordan, who happen to be trained chef and restauranteur.

Two Fridays ago, I finished Moby Dick (my third reading, the last some 35 or so years ago) and prodded by Hoare to look more deeply, worked at doing so. The next morning (connection?) the New York Review of Books reviewed an exhaustive biography of Melville, adding to my new-found esteem for this witty, informative, sensual, intriguing morality tale of life and death, good and evil.  Like most great works of art, Melville broke conventions and conceived a new form of the American novel. Last Thursday, in conversation with a young fellow-Hamilton Chi Psi, he brought up founder Philip Spencer, the inspiration for Melville’s Billy Budd. Connections.

Yang taking shape

Last Sunday, following a stint in the stone yard where I’m nearing completion of Yang of The Yin and Yang of Yearning, Ann and I attended another’s birthday party, a celebration of the 90^th of novelist Mary Morgan, our dear friend.  She was widowed two years ago, but carries on – spry, vibrant, witty and with it.  One-by-one, she introduced 40 guests from around the world, relating to us how and why each was important to her. She’s a model (though no longer writing; try The Sound of Her Name – a good read; St. Martin’s Press, ’05.)  

A tale of the long reach of war

Then, last Thursday, came the ultimate ceremony: the funeral mass and internment of friend and fellow Olympic Clubman, 77-year old Dennis Ortblad who died of COVID despite being fully vax’d, alone in an induced coma, on a ventilator, in a Moscow hospital ten time zones and 5,000 miles from loving Mari and family and friends. That austere Catholic message: he’s gone; you will see him again in Heaven.

We sobered clubmen met after the internment; a speaker explored Biocentrism, the theory that there is neither life nor death nor a single, separate existence, but a continuous flow of perceived time and space and energy, of perceptual co-existences in multi-verses. Mysteries . . .

. . . Dennis’ coffin laid in Mt. Pleasant Cemetery

. . . Ishmael in beloved Queequeg’s coffin, floating on the South Pacific

. . . Fletch in his web of connections, immersed in his Sea of Rumination.

Dennis Ortblad, Citizen Diplomat

O Canada

Over the border, they sing O Canada, not Oh, Canada. Well, you know – them Canucks -- don’tcha know, eh? And they say we talk funny!

Last week. Ann and I crossed that border, with fresh test results in hand, left US craziness behind, and nested in Victoria, on Vancouver Island. It was nice.

Looking for whales
in Active Pass 

First was a BC Ferry out of Tsawwassen through Active Pass – no whales to be seen – and into Schwartz Bay ninety minutes later. BC Ferries is twice the size of our Washington State Ferry system, but after all, BC’s coastline and islands are way more than twice the size of Washington State’s. We were parked right on the bow. Those BC ferries are nice. 

   

 It’s a cliché but like so many clichés it’s a cliché because it’s true – Canadians really are nice. They are.

And Victoria is very nice, especially right now with tourism off. But even in normal season, Victoria manages to be nice to, and in spite of, the tourist crowds. Now, a cynical BLM radical like my daughter would say, sure they act nice to you, Pop, because it’s a white enclave you’ve fled to. The charge is fair, though it’s getting less white and more diverse year-by-year. Greater Victoria’s third of a million are still dominantly Euro-Canadian; 13% are East Asian-Canadian, a bit over 1% Afro-Canadian, plus another few percentage of Pacific Islanders, Indigenous First Nationers, and South Asians. But believe me, they’re nice to everybody. It should also be noted that BC is 10% pts ahead of Washington in getting their population vaccinated. The homeless have not reached the tent city proportions of Vancouver or Seattle.

We spent the week in a small, corner condo on the top floor of Mermaid Wharf, harbor-side. Beautifully appointed by its film-maker and interior designer owners, we lived in style and quiet comfort: floor to ceiling windows, fireplace, a small deck, access to private roof-top patio, views of the waterfront with Washington’s Olympic mountains in the background across the Straits of Juan de Fuca. (Yes, it was nice.)  

Johnson St. Bridge,
right next door

Harbor taxis, right down below

      Delusions of Grandeur        

                          (click on a picture to see them in larger format)

Victorians are out-of-doors folk. I know of no other city in the Americas so bike-oriented. The garage ceiling was hung with bikes and racks of kayaks, canoes and shells. The town and nearby Vancouver Island towns and harbors are peppered with marinas. Parks and hiking trails abound. We walked Galloping Goose trail along the outer harbor from downtown to Esquimalt (pronounce the “t”; you’re in BC.) And within easy reach is the Salish Seashore and the Straits; we hiked along the shingle of Ella Beach, in Sooke, and lunched in French Provincial Park, further to the west on the Strait. 

French Provincial Park

Honey mead!

A further reach north on Vancouver Island (nearly ten times the size of Long Island) and you’re into truly wild country with some of the best fishing, fresh and salt, to be found south of Alaska and the Bering Sea. But we didn’t venture far, just to Sidney Harbor for lunch and out to Butchart Gardens. 

These century-old gardens are the tops: fifty-five acres of verdant, stunning colors, beautifully cared for and rotated to fit the seasons. Things really grow here. We saw huge though quite young sequoias planted, like I, in 1934. I’m growing smaller; they, larger. 

We dined well, both in and out. Great Saltspring Island mussels, fat and luscious. A wonderful evening on the patio of Il Terrazzo with a good bottle of Brunello and perfect service from attentive, friendly Adrian. On the way home, we stopped at Taylors Shellfish, state-side on Chuckanut Drive, to buy oysters and fresh-out-of-the-sea black cod. 

But the highlight of the trip was a gracious lunch at the home of Seattle friends Pam and Ron T, Canadians who have just returned to Canada after living 40-plus years in the States. Pam and Ron returned to be near family, not necessarily to leave disfunction behind.  They can watch our mud-wrestling with more dispassion now, though, like most Canadians, they care very much about what happens to us: like a younger brother who is more level-headed and reasonable than we. Their most recent election was just last week. Glamour-boy Justin Trudeau called the early election hoping to gain a clear majority in Parliament, but Canadians are too wary to give anyone that power in these troublesome days, preferring to force on their leaders the collaboration and compromise necessary to a coalition government. His Liberals lost the popular vote but still held a plurality in Parliament. Election campaigning is no less than 36 days and no more than fifty. And electioneering is civil. (Nice.)

O Canada, indeed.  A  granddaughter was graduated by Quest University, in Squamish, BC. Her brother is a sophomore at the University of Toronto. This next summer, I look forward to once again fishing for trout on BC’s Taweel lake in care of Karin and Guido. And Ann and I have beautiful British Columbia just an hour or so north into which to escape and leave US troubles behind for a bit. So nice. 

Government House

Idiot County Award

I am a resident of Washington State; only WA State counties are qualified to contest for my Idiot County Award.

The finalists which meet the cut-off of less-than-40% of over-12 vaccinated:

    Asotin    34.0%

    Columbia     36.4

    Ferry     35.1

    Franklin     39.8

    Garfield     32.3

    Pend Oreille     32.0

    Skamania     32.6

    Whitman     36.4

And the winner is . . .

    Stevens @ 28.7%

    In other words: 71.3% of Stevens County residents >12 are certifiable idiots! 

Giv'em a hand folks!  On second thought, maybe only an elbow bump, and be sure to wear your N-95. 

In case you might suspect that Steven's win is skewed by an ethnic or racial minority, know that whites make up 89.2% of the county. They are a responsible citizenry: the 2020 election turnout was a high 84.3%. Trump/Pence took 69.7% of the Presidential vote; Culp scored 73.7% of the Gubernatorial.

Assassins

For over a week now, I have been haunted by feelings stirred up by two front-page articles in the Sunday Times of the 19th: the admission of our mistaken assassinations of Afghani Zemari Ahmadi and nine of his extended family, including seven children, and the account of our complicity in Mossad’s assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, chief of Iran’s nuclear program. Both murders were carried out with intent – our mistake was in mis-identifying the victim, not in our eagerness to murder – and both relied on elaborate, technological prowess -- the Afghan murders via a drone-launched Hellfire missile triggered from thousands of miles away, the Iranian murder via an AI-controlled automatic machine gun smuggled into and set up in Iran to intercept Mr. Fakhrizadeh and his family.

Two days prior to those NYT stories, a fellow member of the Olympic Club, Rick H, gave a talk on just wars and examined Afghanistan and Iraq in that context. While we were at war in Afghanistan, we were not at war with Afghanistan nor, thankfully, Iran. Rick’s conclusion? Iraq never was and Afghanistan had long ceased to be “just wars.”

 A few days after the Afghan tragedy, in Syria, a country with whom we also are not at war, we assassinated two more men, a Tunisian and a Saudi. It goes on. 

Under Barak Obama, a President I greatly admire for being reflective, smart, and cool, the CIA and Special Ops carried out with his sanction 563 drone assassinations, usually but not always killing their targets, plus hundreds of innocent bystanders. Most of these strikes were in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia – countries with which we are not at war.

The feelings that drag at me? Disgust and Despair: what have we become?

What has war become? In our last declared war, we firebombed Dresden (some 35,000 perished), Nagasaki (39,000), Hiroshima (66,000), and Tokyo (100,000) -- mass murder of nameless citizens. Had a loser done that, they would have hung among the war criminals at Nuremburg or Tokyo. A generation later our fruitless, oxy-moronic “strategic” bombing of the Viet Nams and Cambodia proved mass murder does not work (and that war-criminals can go free.)

Now war, no longer declared and, thus, extra-legal, has shifted to tactics borrowed from the Nizari Isma’ili of the 12thC : targeted assassination. The assassin knows the victim for whom he hunts. Back then he used poison or the garrote but his preferred weapon was the knife, close and silent. Today, he uses poison (Navalny) or the pistol (Nemtsov) or Hellfire missiles or a two-ton, AI-controlled, truck-mounted, automatic 50 caliber machine gun. Assassination none-the-less.

And, like our wars, our assassins are also extra-legal – in fact, illegal. Part 2.11 of Executive Order 12333, signed by President Ronald Reagan in 1981: No person employed by or acting on behalf of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassination. What the hell is going on!?!

What have we become?

What have we become, sentencing to death and intentionally murdering Yemenis, Syrians, Somalis, Pakistanis? And even, in the case of Imam Anwar al-Awlaki, a US citizen and his son. Where does it stop? Yes, disgusted and despairing . . .

. . .what have we become?    

PS That same week, I was somewhat uplifted by Sam Sperry’s Post Alley encomium to Kay Bullitt. She fought for what was right, expressed her disgust, and did not give in to despair. We need an army of Kay Bullitts.

 https://www.postalley.org/2021/09/19/making-waves-remembering-kay-bullitt/

When Your Limits Come Down to Meet You

Tomorrow, the 20th anniversary of 9/11, is also the end of my 87^th lap around the sun; Sunday, I'll start the 88^th.  It doesn’t get old, just older.

Last Tuesday, Ann, Roger W, and I took a “’moderate” seven-mile hike in the north Cascades to fish Lake Valhalla on the Pacific Crest Trail.  Total elevation gain 1,500’. We met several PCT’ers, most of whom had started at the Mexican border last April and were now nearing the finish. Their energy and speed are awesome. 

And mine? I was shocked by how tuckered out I was after but 2.5 miles and 1,200’ or so.  The leaden legs begged to stop every 20 yards.  My A-fib kicked in, providing a handy excuse – except that before it did, I had been struggling with what would have been a nice workout just a couple of years ago. 

My chums suggested turning back but I didn’t want to disappoint them nor miss throwing a line in a pristine lake on a stunning fall day. They were genuinely concerned for me (and probably for themselves, envisioning having to schlepp him back up from lakeside to Union Gap from where it was all downhill back to the trailhead.) 

Up we went, over the Gap at 5,050' and down to the lake. A bite to eat, rig up, cast to rising trout.

 

My hiking partners were concerned; I was shaken. Sure, I’ve been aware of that malady called AGE. It’s been harder getting out of the shell now that we are back to crewing. I'm more wobbly; I don’t have the upper body strength of before; I tire in the stone yard after three hours, And I’m a bit whifty at times. I’ve always believed in willing my way through anything, but Tuesday’s drama has shown me that my limits are shrinking, coming down to meet a diminished me. 

How much faster and further to go? What will give out next? So far, I have been undeservedly blessed. Many of my classmates are gone. Some have lost beloved companions; others are struggling with progressive disease or cruel injury. I have so much to be grateful for.

Since Tuesday, though, sobering thoughts have haunted my days and nights. Will I have to give up our annual Sun Valley ski trip? Are things in order for Ann and family? Get going on cleaning out those office files and closets full of hobbies and junk! And -- no more cases of wine futures; start drinking your inventory.

I’m still willful: don’t get old; get older. The challenge is how to enjoy older, how to stay interested and interesting, to care. My only answer is to keep working Fletch Waller’s Three-part Mission Statement: 

Though still shaken, I’m thankful for Tuesday’s wake-up call on the Pacific Crest Trail. Come Sunday morning, what do I intend? What will I make of this 88^th lap? How many strikes do I have left?

The Best of '20

Since 2018, I have posted my likes among the photos I made during the previous year.  For 2020, the pickins' are slim; that was a year we stuck close to home, not rich in photo ops. So, few as they are, here are my 

Best of '20

The year seemed just to grind on --

Pulse, Tony Cragg, Mpls Inst. of Arts

In June we snuck away to a lake on San Juan Island. I watched an owl dive into the reeds, expecting her to come up with a duckling. No! Astonishing; she had a snake half again her height! She flew up into the fir right off our balcony where she sat gnawing on her lunch and eyeing me. The Athenians would have understood the good omen: their snake symbolized uncertainty, the boundary between one state and another, between life and death.  And here, Athena, goddess of wisdom in her manifestation of Owl, was defeating uncertain fate. It promised poorly for the virus, good for mankind (or, at least. for Athenians.)

  

Despite Covid, parents found ways to nurture their young.

Pa pileated and fledgling 

The sun rose each day, promising that we'd get through this -- 

-- especially if we stayed together.

September: day hike over Sourdough Gap into Rainier Nat'l Park

Wanted: an Angry, International, Teen-Age, Nuclear Activist

 Wanted: a Nuclear Greta Thunberg

Two potential disasters threaten the existence of mankind. One we can do nothing about; the other we can and must.

No, neither pandemic nor global warming threaten the existence of man. Global warming, already disrupting us, will cause more and more death and destruction but mankind will likely survive just as we survived the ice age 15,000 years ago.  Likewise, though immunologists warn us that pandemics will increase in frequency, big pharma (love’em or hate’m) has armed us with messenger RNA technology for fast development of vaccines. We will certainly suffer but survive future viral pandemics.

The two truly existential threats are a catastrophic asteroid collision and a nuclear Armageddon.  The first we can do nothing about (except nourish science fiction and our nightmares.)  The most recent close shave was with 2020QG on August 16^th last year; we didn’t spot it until six hours after it had already cruised by! (Incidentally, 2021GW4, a 16-footer, small but still very dangerous, will swing by today, as I write this.)

The second existential threat, nuclear Armageddon, i.e., genetic mutation and nuclear winter, we can and must do something about. Must, because it's imminent and must, because we can. We have the knowledge; what is required is an aroused, worldwide public demand to delegitimize nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Armageddon is very real, very near, and increasingly likely. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ metaphorical Doomsday Clock has been moved forward to 100 seconds before midnight -- mankind’s annihilation – the nearest in its 74-year history. (In 1991, the clock was re-set from seven to 17 minutes, its longest, reflecting the end of the cold war. Think of that: from 1,020 seconds to 100 over the past thirty years.)

So why isn’t the public aroused?  Because we’ve been living with the threat for 3/4ths of a century. Because it’s sober, serious greybeards who have been issuing the warnings: people like Sam Nunn and Ted Turner of NTI, Helen Caldicott of Physicians for Social Responsibility, Andrei Sakharov and Robert Oppenheimer, Sen. Merkle of the Arms Control Assoc., and so many others.  But as the history of global warming concern shows us, eminent and knowledgeable authorities are necessary but not sufficient.

Wallace Smith Broecker called out the connection between abrupt climate change and the Ocean Conveyor Belt half a century ago and sounded the alarm about greenhouse gasses before Congress in 1984. Astrid Caldas of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Peter Kalmus of NASA, and innumerable other scientists joined the call for action. Al Gore and his PowerPoint slides; Gaylord Nelson, Peter McClosky, and our own Denis Hayes (now of the Bullitt Foundation) with their Earth Day; and those worthies of the UN Climate Change conferences, Kyoto and the rest – all got nothing from political leaders other than lip service.  Until, that is, along comes a 14-yearold Swede with a raw, j’accuse attitude to point an angry finger at us, the older generations who created this threatening mess for her and her Gen Z compatriots.  Arouse them Greta Thunberg did!

The lesson is clear.  Politicians with their short-term next-election or vote-of-confidence horizons are not going to act until young people get mad. They, in turn, get their parents mad and irreversible public demand for action builds.  Witness: the Viet Nam war protests started with campus teach-ins. Witness the student lunch counter sit-ins and SNCC voter registration crusades. What followed was public support, demands for action, and change.

What we now need is a Nuclear Greta Thunberg to back up the scientists and prophets of nuclear Armageddon with angry pressure on politicians worldwide.

Take little solace from Biden and Putin having extended New-START by five years: that’s nothing but a band-aid. It’s time to rip off scabs. Triage and emergency treatments must begin on:

·       Biden’s endorsement of a $1 trillion program for “sustainment, replacement and upgrades” of our nuclear arsenal, which includes our antiquated (still necessary?), silo-bound ICBMs.

·       Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade levels.

·       China’s development of war-head-capable cruise missiles and – a recent development – construction of a field of 100 ICBM silos in the desert of China’s northwest province of Gansu.

·       Putin’s development of Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed, super-sonic cruise missile of indeterminate range.

·       Northrup Grumman’s Air Force contract for development of a replacement for the Minuteman ICBM.

·       Indian and Russian collaborative development of BrahMos, an air, ship, or land launched super-sonic cruise missile.

·       Pakistan’s and India’s continued build-up of warhead inventories and development of new delivery vehicles.

·       North Korea’s continued testing and development of warhead delivery systems, including submarine launched cruise missiles.

·       Saudi, Turkish, and Japanese internal pressures to become nuclear.

·       US development of the new Columbia class of nuclear submarine.

·       China’s construction of large aircraft carriers with nuclear-capable, carrier-based aircraft.

·       Russia’s and China’s testing of anti-satellite missiles.

·       Raytheon’s contract for development of the ALCM 1000, an air-launched cruise missile, and the Nat’l Nuclear Security Administration’s $11.2 b development of new warhead for it.

·       China’s and US’s weaponization of space initiatives, and planned heavy-lift establishment of moon bases.

·       US response to the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons which came into effect this past January 21^st.

·       US, NATO, and Russian refusals to declare a no-first-use policy.

Aren’t Russia’s and our 4,000 warheads a bit much when 200 or fewer going off simultaneously are all it takes to trigger a nuclear winter???

 

WANTED

An Angry, International, Teen-aged, Nuclear Activist

Until she comes along, riles up Gen Zers around the world, and together they de-legitimize nuclear weapons, the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock will continue its creep toward midnight. 

Advice for People Contemplating Marriage

Advice for people contemplating marriage: encourage them to roadtest the relationship. Encourage them to do it before committing to marry. No, not that “it” – I’m talking about road-tripping, a long road-trip together.

Living together before marriage seems more rule than exception these days, quite out of the question in mine. Well, I approve. Living together is fine. It works to get to know one another: you come home, share your day, prepare dinner or go out to the pub with friends, go to bed, make love – that’s all well and good.  

But living together is insufficient.  Too many distractions -- work, friends, preparing meals and so on.  Road-tripping: now that is the real test. 

Being isolated together hours on end in a steel and glass capsule moving across spaces.  And when the capsule stops: you’re not with friends but dealing with strangers. 

On a road trip you learn about yourself -- if you can enjoy this person or are willing to tolerate him or her. You learn about planning and about flexibility when plans go awry. You learn about curiosity and impulsiveness. You learn about how you and your companion engage strangers. You learn about shared interests and about your tolerance for those interests not shared. 

I'm thinking about two road trips taken with wives, though neither was pre-marriage. The first with Barbara: 2,500 miles round-trip Minneapolis to New Orleans to celebrate her completion of nine weeks of drying out at St. Mary's. No need to go into details about the trip; suffice to say -- it was truly terrible -- punctuated with two threats to fly home! Had I not had overriding responsibilities and an endless capacity for rationalizing, I would have divorced 15 years sooner.  All the signs were there; time did not assuage them.

By contrast, the just completed road-trip with Ann was pure joy -- 19 days, 3,866 miles to Springdale, Utah to hike Zion, Kolob and Cedar Breaks; to Tropic for Bryce and Escalante's slot canyons on Willis Creek; to Torrey for Capitol Reef; to Moab for Canyonlands and Arches; to Vernal for the Dinosaur Monument; to Jackson Hole for the Tetons; through Yellowstone to Gardiner, Montana; off-highway to Wallace, Idaho and home. We have road-tripped often, in France, Italy, England, Norway, Scotland and here at home but this was our longest, likely our best.

We laughed a lot, bickered without wound or rancor, listened to news and music (Sirius XM a must). We read to each other and shared discoveries. We engaged strangers, we ate well and slept well.  Not a word in anger. And best of all, we enjoyed each other. 

Road surprises? At a roadside stop near Boulder, WY, a biker in his black leathers picking up his breakfast -- a fifth of Jack Daniels and a bag of Doritos. In Hanksville, UT, the Om-inspired wackiness of Carl's Garden of Critters -- only in America! Potato-king Simplot's phosphate mine tears apart the pristine high plateau of Utah's Unita Mountains. The cross-pocked backroads of beautiful, sad, broken Montana.  

Preston Trombly, host of Symphony Hall -- we've become fans and have talked subsequently. Shared driving -- we switched every 2 1/2 hours. Ann is a good driver, a much better driver than passenger. She's a terrible passenger. Subaru's GPS -- I finally learned how to use its 'nearby search' function having to look up Starbucks for Ann. 

Ann delivered master classes on engaging strangers: 

    

    ~ the Nuremberger, where I spent five Februaries back in my toy fair days 

    ~ an affordable housing expert, now mayor of Moab

    ~ the principal of Torrey's elementary school who has to waitress for her family's upkeep (What have we come to? She should be the highest paid person in town.)

    ~ the cattleman entrepreneur creating jobs for his town where 80% of the high school graduating  classes leave and never return

    ~ the Korean psychiatrist and his retired VOA wife 

    ~ four Iraqi emigrant software engineers on a hiking jaunt between nights in Vegas before returning to Galveston, no doubt with tales to tell

Plus discoveries, as: Payday candy bars offer excellent nutritional balance, cost less and taste way better than those fancy REI energy bars, As: Subaru's Outback fully lives up to its advertised  willingness to go anywhere, no matter how rocky the road, with love.

Our trip confirmed how well-suited we are to one another. So, when the time comes, encourage your kids or grandkids to road-test, to take a long road trip before committing to marry. It just might reduce the odds of grief later on.                                          

Love in the Time of COVID*

Thank God for My Git-Up and Go Companion

I met Ann Janes in ’88, just about this time of year, when I told the Bellevue Rotary about the break-up of UAL. We married in fall of ’91; she has been my constant love and companion every day of those 30 years.

It has been her git up and go which has kept me moving despite bad knees, bad back, diverticulitis, A-fibbing, torn-up shoulder and what all.  My go would have been long gone but for her. Now, emerging from pandemic purgatory, hugging friends again and dining together in their homes and ours, I look back in wonder and gratitude for her energy and sense of now; we have survived this year together.

Westcott Bay, San Juan Isle.
June '20

Our year of The COVID started upon return from skiing in Ketchum and a quick trip to Minnesota.  Our first foray was a long-weekend on San Juan Island followed by another in Port Townsend. We hiked Rainier, returned to Ketchum in the fall, to The Methow for skiing this January, again to Ketchum in February, and to Rainier last weekend to say goodbye to snow.  Later this month, God willing, it’s to be a three-week road trip to Utah and Wyoming, then home via Montana and Idaho. We relish road-tripping – talking politics, pod-casting, bickering, laughing, wondering at the beauty of this land, and tucking in together at day’s end.

      Together: it's become my favorite word.

Rainier, April, '21

Sourdough Gap, Rainier, Sept.'20

 

Billy's Bridge, March,'21

* apology to Gabriel García Márquez.

Is Liberal Democracy Doomed?

Over the last two years, alarmist articles about the rise of autocracy have been regular features in Foreign Affairs, The Economist, major newspapers and books, Anne Applebaum’s Twilight of Democracy one of the latest. Earlier this month, an international affairs group to which I belong discussed the questions “Is liberal democracy in decline?” and ”To what degree should American foreign policy promote liberal democratic values?” In preparation for the discussion, I committed my thoughts to paper, in order to see if they made any sense.  Here is what I wrote:

Yes, liberal democracy is under threat.

But I am an optimist – albeit an anxious optimist; herein I argue that the threat is internal, temporal, and manageable.  I believe that liberal democracy has innate appeal and soon again will be on the upswing as autocracy and oligopoly show their innate weaknesses. My argument will be thought by some to be naïve and  idealistic; that I will be thought  insufficiently alarmed by the seductive appeal of simple, autocratic answers. But liberal democracy better fits basic human needs and desires than does any other form of government. Over time, it will prevail. Our present challenge is to strengthen confidence in it by reforms that demonstrate the superiority and responsiveness of our democratic republican system. Eleanor Roosevelt wrote in 1942: “If Democracy is to survive, it must be because it meets the needs of the people.”

First, what is a liberal democracy?

A liberal democracy is a country characterized: 

~ By citizens’ individual freedoms:

        to choose how and where to live,

        to aspire to whatever they fancy and are willing to strive for,

        to choose what to believe,

        to express themselves,

        to associate with others of their choosing, and

        to pursue their personal, emotional and material well-being.

        To have free and unfettered access to markets for their needs and wants. 

~ By citizens’ acknowledgment of their bonds with and responsibilities for fellow citizens, their

community, and their nation.

~ By a legislature representative of and selected by the citizenry in regularly scheduled elections, charged with promulgating laws and seeing that the costs of government are equitably shared among those receiving its services.

~ By rules and laws fairly and equally applied to all citizens and residents regardless of wealth, position, ethnicity or belief; citizens have access and freedom to appeal to courts for just and fair application of rules and laws.

~ By social mobility, a reflection of access to education and fairness of opportunity.

~ By protections of minority views from the dictates of a majority. By flourishing, multi-voiced,

independent journalism.

~ By a separation of powers -- judicial, legislative, domestic administrative and foreign relational -- under independent leadership with roles and limitations spelled out in charters, mission statements or constitutions so as to provide checks and balances on each other.

Anne Applebaum and Viktor Orban describe one-party governments with controlled legislatures and controlled “elections” (with pre-selected, loser opposition) as “Ill-liberal Democracies.” Such unitary states are in fact a mockery of democracy, most often a person rather than a party: United Russia is Putin; the CCP is Xi Jinping; Fidesz is Orban; the AK Parti is Erdogan. This model is how the Republicans decided to forego a platform in 2020 and crowned Trump to be the GOP. 

“Illiberal Democracy” does not exist.

It is an attempt to create something by labeling it when in fact an illiberal democracy is a nullity, a vacuum, an absence of the qualities of liberal democracy. In such governments, citizens are constrained from free expression and association by surveillance, intimidation, censorship and control of media; market access may be denied. 

In such governments, citizens’ communal responsibility is defined by the state, usually heavily weighted to subservience to the nation; 

~ a legislature is selected by a portion of the citizenry in controlled, pre-determined elections, which therefore represents only that portion of the citizenry, leaving others unrepresented; 

~ rules and laws are imposed unfairly and unevenly, with waivers and exemptions for privileged or favored classes;

~ legislative, judicial, administrative and diplomatic powers are concentrated in one person or a small cadre of people selected by the autocrat;  

~ lastly, in such governments, collective efficiency and effectiveness is valued above individual human needs.

What is the attraction of such governments?

Autocracies and oligarchies arise in response to fear, distress and distrust, confusion, and/or threat to material well-being and safety. They may be imposed by arms, as in Myanmar. Usually, however, the human need for assurance and confidence gives way to seeking out and granting power to an authority – an “I alone can solve it” -- be it a person or a guiding creed: what the leader says or imposes, what the book prescribes. (The book: the Bible, the Torah, the Quran, the Communist Manifesto, the tribal creation myth, whatever.) Currently, in these times of uncertainty and loss of confidence, of faltering progress in material well-being, of dramatic, uncontrollable change, the pendulum has swung people toward autocrats, oligarchies, creedal strictures. What they offer is an identity more than an ideology or platform.

Examples of countries without liberal democracy abound: China, Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Myanmar, Russia, Tanzania, Egypt, India, Philippines, Pakistan, Ghana, etc., etc. Some of these are deeply, culturally-rooted paternalistic-autocratic systems as in China, Saudi Arabia or Russia.  Others result from opportunistic power grabs, as in Venezuela, Hungary, Iran or Tanzania. Most of the world lives under such governments; one or another autocracy or oligarchy will always be emergent. But despite that, and in the long-run, human nature and demographics are stacked against them.

Human nature and demographics are stacked against them

These autocrats, oligarchies, and creedal society structures necessarily need to constrain freedom of belief, freedom of choice; freedom to express oneself; freedom to associate with whom one wishes; and freedom to aspire and pursue personal, emotional and material well-being. Even in cultures that pressure individuals to subordinate themselves to the collective (e.g., Japan?) these human values persist and survive. Man, i.e., the human, is a communal animal who needs to express her personhood, to believe in something outside himself, to seek material and spiritual well-being for their families.  These personal needs are better facilitated by a Liberal Democratic form of governing their commonwealth than by any other system of governance. 

 As material well-being is assured and self-confidence grows, these needs and values will manifest themselves again. I am an anxious-optimist: the arc history is bent toward the values delivered by liberal democracy. Despite the current pendulum swing toward simple answers, toward repression and autocracy, the pendulum will swing back and ever more strongly toward these human desires for freedom to choose, to express oneself, to openly believe, to associate, and to aspire.  A pendulum swing toward liberal democratic values and aspirations is given a boost by education and exposure to the world through music, film, literature, the Internet and proliferating media; each swing toward liberal democracy will be stronger than before. No other form of government is so likely to match human values, to promise delivery of these benefits, as does liberal democracy.

Autocrats and the unjust have always stimulated resistance; inspiring, role-model resistors from the past: Gandhi, MLK, Mandela, Bonhoeffer, Havel, Walesa. And now the more the world is linked by media and the Internet, the more frequently new resistors will emerge: other Novalnys, other Chow Hang-tungs and Ai Weiweis, other Varadarajans, other Kashoggis (may he rest in peace), other Aung San Suu Kyis and Satsaksits.

Moreover, it is the young that embrace and risk resistance.  The world (China and Russia excepted) is growing younger.  Millennials make up 25% of Chinese; those digital-generation Gen-Z-ers, 15%.  Gen Z-ers are 23% of Poles, 25% of Burmese, 30% of Venezuelans, 39% of Turks, 54% of Saudis, 60% of Iranians. At 30% of Indians, they total 472 million young, digitally savvy, upwardly mobile, ever-better educated strivers who aspire to lives that characterize liberal democracies, whether they think in terms of “democracy” or not. Only so long as Modi can deliver material progress, education opportunities and freedom of choice to them can he forestall resistance; but he can never tolerate freedom of belief, association, and expression -- and these will erode his autocracy. 

Out of Gen Z, other Greta Thunbergs will emerge. Here is a link to Pew Research’s study of American Gen Z’ers; note especially their views on government, race equity, and participation: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/05/14/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far-2/

They and millennials will, I believe, turn away from autocracy and oligarchy and seek the benefits of a liberal democratic republic, swinging the pendulum back toward liberal democratic values as the world emerges from the pandemic, engages and addresses climate change, and rebuilds confidence once again in an promising future.

What should we do now?

The first, necessary condition for liberal democracy is belief in it, i.e., confidence that it is fair, that one’s voice can be heard and one’s vote will count.

To promote and justify belief in liberal democracy, we need to:

~ Commit ourselves to reject the temptation of autocracy and simplistic answers.  Work at pragmatic, step-by-step improvements and solutions. Champion collaboration and dampen zero-sum    polarization. Restore legislative majority rule.

~ Focus on strengthening our liberal-democratic productivity and effectiveness, letting performance speak for itself. Focus on education, infrastructure, entrepreneurship, facilitation of middle-class prosperity and social mobility, and equitable and open elections. When collaboration is impossible, move forward.

~ Prosecute Trump, Giuliani, and Jan 6^th insurrectionists; demonstrate to ourselves and the world what “rule of law” means.

~ Liberalize immigration and routes to citizenship to enhance our attractiveness.

~ Inculcate and embrace an over-arching, shared identity that spans but does not invalidate individual identities of race, ethnicity, and gender. Celebrate our diversity. Establish a shared identity of opportunity – for anyone and everyone to express themselves and work toward realization of their aspirations.

~ Partner with other democratic states to address international issues of global warming, migration, pandemic response, and space exploration. Avoid presuming to claim “leadership of the free world”; humility with strength should be our posture.

~ Voice disapproval of civil right abuses such as Indian, Chinese, Thai and Burmese treatment of their Muslim minorities; of Russian and Chinese aggression against neighbors. Tie such concerns to       absence of invitations to partner or participate.

~ Do not initiate outreach to autocratic states (except for arms control); let them seek access to our markets and inclusion in collaborations. Refrain from imposing penalties and sanctions on undemocratic states but enact constraints and impose costs on US businesses and citizens that partner or trade with un-favored nations.

~ Give succor to the world when we can; diminish military aid.

Walt Kelly: “We have met the enemy – and it’s us.”

The threat to liberal democracy is not external but internal.  We are the threat: our lack of confidence; our acceptance of stalled material progress and insecurity; our acceptance of lagging education; our apathy about 10% of us lacking access to health care, about injustice, about inequity and inequality; our indulgence of prejudice and discrimination; our tolerance of and easy access to weapons with which to menace fellow citizens. And most important, our lack of a shared identity as Americans.

That other nations turn to autocracy is regrettable but not in itself a threat. We should remain vigilant and strong so that autocratic states cannot blackmail us either militarily or economically.  But our prime focus should be internal: to strengthen and deliver our liberal democracy’s benefits to all US citizens and to let our example speak to the world.

Surprisingly, most of the discussants, while very concerned about the immediate challenges, were also optimistic for the long run so long as reform was undertaken to strengthen democratic participation and inequities addressed.  But that's a tall order.