Friday, February 28, 2014

The View From Saigon

Ann and I recently returned from two weeks in Vietnam and another week visiting the Angkor kingdom of Cambodia and R&R in Bangkok.  But it is of Vietnam that I write.  I keep a daily log on such trips, and what I wrote on February 2nd, upon leaving Vietnam, still seems apt:

One is impressed by the sheer energy of this society.  By necessity and ambition, this is an entrepreneurial culture -- communism be damned.  Tremendous loyalty to and concern for family -- ancestors, current members and successors.  Education a topmost value. People are open except in the presence of officialdom; officials are assumed to be corrupt and venal. A conservative society (no tattoos, no gay relationships acknowledged,) one that despite science and learning, still hedges its bets with superstition, ritual, and belief in luck, still buying lottery tickets and praying for good fortune from heroes, the Buddha, various Bodhisattvas, and ancestors -- and good fortune here means money.  Friend Tuyen says "it is a hard life but a happy one."

Independence: everywhere one is confronted with national heroes -- deified in temples, celebrated in memorials and marshal statues, famed for driving out conquerors and occupiers: the Chinese, the Khmer, the French, the Americans.  Even a would-be but intercepted assassin of Sect. McNamara has a large memorial in Saigon.

Uncle Ho is ever-present, but more benign and patriarchal than heroic. The "American War" is memorialized in every city, town and hamlet; captured American equipment and armaments on display at army bases and war museums; photos of atrocities and agent orange reminders; former CIA HQs proudly noted and memorialized.  Their "end-zone dance" of independence.

Viet Nam looks pretty raw as a society still sorting out what freedom means. It's just shy of forty years since they won their freedom, having fought 29 years to achieve it after declaring independence in 1946. Ours took but seven years, from 1776 to '83; how must we have looked to Great Britain at forty, in 1823?

How do we look today, from here in Saigon, with "The American War" confronting us at every turn? John McCain, in a BBC debate from Davos last week, castigated the administration for not going into Syria two years ago, citing the several thousand lives that have been lost since as though our presence would have saved them.  (Three million Vietnamese and 58,000 Americans lost their lives during our and France's "presence.")  Bob Gates blames Obama for not trusting his generals (as Johnson and Nixon trusted Harkins and Westmorland?) and attacks Biden for voting against Iraq and spreading doubt about Petraeus and the Spartan McCristal.  But from here, in the face of all the hubris and futility, Biden appears more right than ever.

What lessons does Fletch take away from Vietnam?
* Work at family.
* Work for peace.
* Be skeptical of governments.
* Ignore political-economic labels (communism, capitalism, socialism, market economy) and adopt Deng's precept: "Black cat, white cat -- what difference does it make so long as it catches mice?" 
* But do not ignore constraints on an individual's civil rights.
* Hold onto good values, think right thoughts, have good intentions, act right,
* and eat good food.


The timeless rhythm of rice 
Ann explores VC tunnels in Cu Chi

Doing business on the Mekong
Yellow mums for Tet
Uncle Ho -- the "poet"

Marble Mtn. grotto
The Empire of the Motorbike




Friday, January 17, 2014

Did Obama Get It Right?

From the perspective of a President encumbered by contentious politics, perhaps so.

As a constitutional scholar, not so.

As a risk manager, no.

He gave a very good speech, intending to and appearing thoughtful, balanced, confident and supportive of his beleaguered intelligence and security personnel.  He covered all the bases -- national interests, international responsibilities to allies and cautions to adversaries, corporate and trade interests, civil rights.  But so many interests to balance means compromises, in this case, of our civil liberties.

Obama compromised 4th Amendment rights, the cornerstone of citizens' protection against intrusive officials and agencies of the government.  Warrants must be specific to individuals, with well-founded suspicion spelled out.  NSA and the FISA court can continue to flaunt that.

The tougher issue is risk management.  What do we pay for "protection?"  TSA inconvenience; billions spent on a runaway intelligence industry that remains unaccountable with fat government contracts, consultants galore, and inept suppliers like those that brought us the insurance exchange or didn't monitor Mr. Snowden or identify traitors like Pfc. Manning.  Vigilante drone strikes that feed antipathy and an unending mentality of war (which I do believe Obama searches for ways to exit.)  So far, this "protection" has failed to stop armed Jockey shorts, Boston marathon bombers, and Times Sq. propane armed SUVs.

Risk management entails probability.  What is the probability of setting off a dirty bomb?  At worst, one would contaminate a downtown area and be survivable for all but hundreds, a few thousand at most, but not hundreds of thousands. What's the probability of terrorists getting and smuggling in a full-fledged atom bomb?  What's the probability of non-state terrorists getting an ICBM with nuclear warhead and launching it undetected?  Low, low, low.  If we were truly in a risk management mode, we would pay only a fraction of the costs and inconveniences and civil liberty infringements we suffer.  But, alas, no President could survive the heat of having another tragic attack happen on his watch.  And that's the conundrum: if it can be imagined, he has no choice but to ignore probability and pose as "protecting" us from it ,no matter how remote it might be and no matter what the cost.

Will Obama's announcements change anything at the NSA?  Probably not.  My friend Frank Novosel observed that " those guys aren't sitting around figuring out how to play by the rules.  No, they're figuring out how to get around them, 'cause if they miss the intelligence, their goose is cooked."


As a nation, we are weakened by our "security"; oh to be a Denmark or Sweden or Switzerland, free of being the world's policeman with a bull's-eye on his back.  But there it is ... so Mr. President did about as well as one could expect given a no-win situation.  He didn't get it right because there is no right... only the least of several wrongs.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Back in the Boat!

Friday the 13th: cold, misting, the low hanging clouds obscuring views across Lake Washington, its waters lying still as glass. A drear, moody, ominous morning -- but a glorious day -- for I was back in the boat with my chums for the first time since August 16th (on recovery from my 3rd knee replacement.)  I requested bow seat out of caution in case the leg or shoulder had to have a rest.  But no problem; rusty, but so elated to be back on the water.

When a crew is in sync, there is nothing like it.  The boat runs whispering out from under you, the rhythmic "thunk" of release and crisp "splat" of catch metranomic as you focus to row well but also to match the swing and drop of the person in the seat ahead -- even when she or he is not rowing well.  When all are well it's a symphony of heart, mind and body; one is not in the boat but of the boat.  We had a couple of strokes almost of that ideal -- we're only master amateurs, after all, and most of us old farts at that.  Those almost moments bring silent joy.


Today was also our annual Christmas/Hanukkah pot luck luncheon.  We expressed gratitude to our coaches.  Then, I was stunned to be awarded The Cake Cutter Award for service to the club. (Cut-the-Cake is a drill focusing on matched blade heights and synchronized swings.)  I have gained so much more from Mt. Baker Rowing and Sailing Center than given to it....  I was humbled.  And to have my name listed there alongside role models like George Corkery!  George was in his eighties when I started crewing with him; he retired at 89.  So that's my goal -- another ten years of catch, drive, swing, release and the zen-like peace of being crew member, once again back in the boat, once more at one with the boat.  

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Frank-ness, Restoration and Renewal

Site of the Elwha dam and Power House
Frank Novosel and I just returned from a brief road trip to the Elwha, the largest dam removal project in the nation.  One can only stare at an empty dam site for so long, i.e., the Lower Elwha, and they have closed off hiking access to the upper, the Glines Canyon dam site, because it's still too dangerous -- so we had plenty of time to explore some other wonders of the Olympic Peninsula, to relax in Bravo (the RV he and I lived in during the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics,) to cook some great meals and to explore each other's thoughts.  Frank is a great talker; I am a good listener (my family members might disagree, but then....) And so our conversations rolled on, wandering from what we were seeing, to removal of obstructions, to metaphoric restorations and renewal, to personal histories, to fatherhood and husbanding, to any and everything that came to mind.  But renewal was the closed loop theme. 
A wee drop of single malt
Such conversation is too rare for me.  I make friends slowly, too superficially in the sense of not allowing time for candor and trust to ripen and self consciousness to wane.  And there are too few opportunities to just hang out for a few unscripted days and nights so that obstructions to openness melt away, reflection is restored, and renewal blossoms.  I think gals are quicker at this than guys; for guys, renewal of the spirit can't be rushed; it takes unscheduled time. 

The Elwha below Glines Canyon
The Elwha is not being restored but 
Crescent Beach
renewed. No one can predict how the river and the salmon will turn out.  It will take four or five years before success or failure can be measured.  But already signs are excitingly promising: five species of salmon have appeared in the river since the dams began to come down last year!  Whether their spawn will survive in the dark grey silt remains to be seen.  It covers everything outside the swift currents, is building a large new delta off Port Angeles, and is soiling the beaches of Crescent Bay well to the west.  But life abounds; mountain lion pug have been seen on Crescent Bay; deer, otter and mountain goat are ubiquitous; and Dungeness crab are turning up on the new Elwha delta.  Hurricane Ridge still looms over all. Geologists tell us it, too,  is constantly being renewed by subduction; the end result of that humans will never see. 

In the meantime, we wander about in the natural world (even cocooned in an RV) to unblock, remove obstructions, restore and hope for renewal.  

Hurricane Ridge  









PS: to see more pics of before, after and the removal process, Google Elwha Dam and click on the More Pictures screen.  It also will show the Glines Canyon dam which is really dramatic.

Monday, October 7, 2013

The Emasculation of the Presidency

I was born a year and a half into FDR's first term.  The magic 100 days had passed; the Supreme Court had not yet dismantled a number of his initiatives.  Though the country was still in the grip of depression, his actions and the confidence Roosevelt beamed from the White House had lifted Americans' spirit and revived, albeit tentatively, hope that we could find our way forward.

In adolescence, I was an avid fan of Mr. President, a serial radio drama in which Edward Arnold portrayed historical episodes from past Presidencies, revealing only in the last minute the name of the President being portrayed.  I read boy's biographies of Presidents.  I absorbed from my parents an automatic respect for and admiration of our President.

Meanwhile, for the next half century, the American Presidency steadily coalesced power; The Great Depression, WWII, the Atomic Age and Cold War, proliferation of regulatory agencies (authorized by Congress, mind),The Cuban Missile Crisis and Viet Nam, the secrecy of CIA and NSA all swung the pendulum of power toward the Executive and away from Congress.  Mainly, it was the Judiciary that kept the pendulum from over-swinging. 

So perhaps it's no surprise that I admire a President who can lead and speak for all of us, whom Congress respects, who generates awe and affection from our friends and awe and fear from our foes. 

But... for good or ill, the American Presidency is an institution in decline.

Hamilton wrote in Federalist #70 that "Energy in the Executive is a leading character in the definition of good government."  And "A feeble executive is but another phrase for a bad execution; and a government ill executed, whatever it may be in theory, must be, in practice, a bad government."

Surely, Hamilton and Madison would have been alarmed at the imbalance of power in the '40s, '50's and '60's.  But how would they react today, as the Presidency becomes increasingly toothless, on the verge of emasculation. 

In his landmark work, The American Presidency, Clinton Rossiter's first lecture enumerated the powers of the Presidency.  He listed five chartered by the Constitution; let's take a look.
·         Chief of State, i.e., the ceremonial head of government, who with real of feigned enthusiasm greets dignitaries, bestows medals, pardons turkeys, proclaims holidays, throws out first pitches, and all the rest.  What may seem frivolous is necessary to stay in touch with our people and generate empathy from them for what Rossiter called "a one-man distillation of the American People."  
Reagan played this role to the hilt.  But Clinton's peccadilloes and W's Texas swagger and entangled syntax weakened the role.  Has Obama, simply by illustrating the growing diversity of Americans, inherently fragmented any single father-figure image Chief of State?
·         Chief Executive, i.e., the supervisor of the government, through the powers to appoint and remove, in order -- as the Constitution demands -- to "take care that the laws be faithfully executed."  With the explosion of independent regulatory agencies, increasingly complex bills coming out of Congress, signing statements from the White House, and an distressingly activist, reactionary court, can anyone be singly and confidently held accountable for what Hamilton called good administration: Federalist #68, "The true test of a good government is its aptitude and tendency to produce a good administration."   Remember "your doin' a heckuva job, Brownie"? 
·          Commander in Chief of the military might as well as of the vast and increasingly intrusive intelligence apparatus.  Has Obama weakened this role by his waffling over the "red line" in Syria?  Does anyone take him seriously that military options are still on the table?  Maybe in this case, it is for the best, but no one doubted Lincoln, as Commander in Chief, "clothed in immense power."  Is the Commander still Chief when his Intelligence czar and head of NSA get caught lying to Congress and us about what they are snooping into, and the President has not yet called them to account or fired anyone; is this role, too, being eaten away from within?
·         Chief Diplomat; the two elements of this are formulation of foreign policy and  the conduct of foreign affairs.  In Federalist #75, Hamilton explains the role of the executive as sole representative to foreign governments and of the Senate as constraint and contact with the will of the people.  Two Supreme Court decisions, in 1799 and 1936, confirm those roles.  Yet in recent years, more and more treaties lie languishing for lack of Senate action to either ratify or reject.  No fewer than nine human rights treaties await action, dating back to 1977, and countless other important items like Law of the Seas, environmental treaties, and trade treaties are blocked from consideration, usually by a minority of the Senate.  Moreover, junketing Representatives and Senators, e.g., Lindsey Graham and John McCain visiting with rebels in Syria, muck about in what should be Executive Branch domain. 
Another element of diplomacy is foreign respect.  Consider what has happened as America has screwed up Iraq, been befuddled in Afghanistan, looked rudderless in Syria, become the fall guy for all sides that the Arab Spring has sprouted, and been flaunted and lectured to by Vladmir Vladmirovitch.  
  • ·         Chief Legislator.  Congress deals with such a complex myriad of issues, and represents so many conflicting interests, that the Constitutional charge that the President "shall from time to time give to Congress information on the state of the union, and recommend to their consideration such measures as he shall judge expedient" (Article II, Section 3) has become a major function.  It is mentioned in passing in Federalist #77, but in such a way as to indicate it was then almost an afterthought to the authors.  It grew to be a critical role; Roosevelt, Johnson, even Eisenhower, put their stamp on legislation.  But today, Presidential budgets and legislative proposals are virtually DOA with Congress openly disdainful of the office. 
Rossiter  goes on to add five more roles of a President that over time and through the evolution of our democratic republic have become part of his or her job. 
  • ·         Chief of The Party.  But look at Obama's inability to corral his own.   Democrats defy his appointments, lobby against candidates (e.g., Larry Summers) and set their own agenda.  Some think this fine, but Obama's unwillingness to play party boss and chief stroker has undermined his authority within his own ranks.
  • ·         Voice of The People.  Lincoln and the Roosevelts established this role, but ever since, with easy access to media, many "voices of the people" have diminished the awe and respect for the voice of the President.  The networks sometimes decline to broadcast his oval office addresses.
  • ·         Protector of the Peace: this stems from the power to declare emergencies and issue decrees.  The Emergency Banking Act, 1933, and Securities and Exchange Act, 1934, even give the President power to suspend financial activity.  But the concentration of financial power, lobbying pressure and campaign contributions have nullified such authority.  Yes, the President still can declare emergency in case of natural disasters, but not likely man-made ones.
  • ·         Manager of Prosperity.  The Full Employment Act, the Council of Economic Advisors, the annual Economic Report and all the rest appear to create this role for him or her -- but it is, of course, an impossible expectation to be lived up to.  No President has the power today to "manage" our economy, and the more they try, the more impotent they appear.
  • ·         Leader of the Free World.  Like it or not, sought or not, this role was thrust upon our President in 1945 and doubly so in 1989.  But today?  A mockery... a third of the world resists us, another third dislikes us and the rest is in doubt about our leadership after the Iran-Contra scandal, the humbling on 9/11, the Bush/Cheney folly of Iraq, the quagmire of Afghanistan, and the impressive rise of a China who appears able to get things done.

One might say that it is an impossible job.  But nonetheless, in all ten roles, the American Presidency is increasingly tarnished, increasingly emasculated.  To many, this is not unwelcome.  To my libertarian friends, all government is too powerful, Executive and Congress.  And they like the tilt of the Supreme Court (though they should beware its taste for corporate libertarians.)  But to others, it is a regrettable trend.  I, for one, am distressed.

Can this be reversed?  Yes, certainly the public's congenital willingness to embrace magnetic personalities means another avuncular Reagan might appear to reverse the decline, as he did our Nixon/Ford/Carter malaise.  A new national crisis might give rise to another Lincoln or FDR.  But in the meantime, the American Presidency is being emasculated by our political incapacity (gerrymandered safe seats and money politics), by self-inflicted wounds (like Bush/Cheney's vendetta against Saddam Hussein), by lack of understanding what a President must be and do (Obama?), and by world affairs beyond our ken (the Arab Spring, Islamic fundamentalism, the rise of China.) Are we satisfied with this -- to have a string of Buchanans or Hardings?

No.  The American Presidency is a unique institution, the finest creation of the Constitutional Convention.  We need to reverse the emasculation and restore the presidency in power and prestige for I believe an effective and energetic  President is necessary to the continuing productivity, confidence and unity of America. 

  

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Decapitate Rejection

With but one exception, my post "Decapitate" has been met with opprobrium. (I love it when I can use a new word -- even better when in conversation.)  Anyway, yes -- strong rejection and disagreement.  Not just illegal and amoral, but also reducing ourselves to the lowest denominator tactics of our enemies; triggering a round of retribution attacks; encouraging distribution of WMD to terrorist organizations, undermining legitimacy of international justice organizations; earning distrust of allies and enemies, alike ... and so on.

In the cool light of day, my critics are probably right.  But they do not have counters to my arguments that any other response -- limited pinprick or change of regime campaign -- is worse.  Frankly, I hope Congress denies the President's request to embark on a self-defeating course.  I would rather stand down and plead impotency when it comes to sorting out or bringing sense to the chaos that is the Middle East today.

How satisfying it would be to decapitate the bastard ... but cooler heads should prevail.

Monday, September 2, 2013

Decapitate

Obama wants to make a punitive strike on Syria.  Stupid.  Syria didn't order its citizens gassed, Assad did. Obama wants it to be surgical and limited -- not to punish, after all, but in hope of sustaining what little credibility we still have with allies.  We have to strike because we said we would.  Perhaps Obama deserves a punishment for having made dumb red-line boasts. He used the phrase "shot across the bow."  A shot across the bow goes harmlessly into the sea.  No, misspoke: he means, some real hurt -- but of limited duration and extent. Like being half-pregnant? And any collateral damage will only strengthen Assad's moralistic outrage.  All a limited strike will do is underscore how limited are our options and how wary we are of taking risk. A pin-prick would not slow this or other Assad wanna-bes.

McCain wants a major military thrust to change the regime.  Equally stupid.  We ally ourselves with whom? Al-Qaeda?  We enter into a dirty civil war with extremists on every side, become enmeshed in another toxic swamp of Middle-East rivalries we don't begin to understand, spill blood and spend borrowed money in fruitless quest of regional stability.

The only strike that fits the crime (and Obama's need to be taken seriously) is decapitation.  When a tyrant gasses his own population, he should lose his head. Obama must have plenty of spooks -- ours or Israel's or Jordan's or somebody's who have a plan to accomplish it.  Unleash them.  If no plan is feasible with a high probability of success, fold our tent and withdraw from the Middle East.  We don't belong there, anyway.

Decapitation.  Illegal? Yes.  Immoral?  Less so than punitive strike or attempted regime change that would wound and kill innocent by-standers.  Playing God again?  We've already transgressed there.  Decapitate and don't look back.