Two groups of Americans may be on a collision course -- parents
of kids and elders. By 2025 --if we
don't change course -- the American body politic may be embroiled in a titanic,
inter-generational struggle over scarce resources: money and talents for the geriatric
care of elders and/or for the education of children.
The coming
growth in the population of elders has been well publicized, but consider the numbers:
in the next decade,
the population of Americans over sixty-five will balloon to 64mm from today's 38mm,
an average annual growth of nearly 5%. The population of those over eighty will
jump to 15mm from 9mm today, a growth of near 7% per year! And as you know, the costs of caring for
those elders grows exponentially faster.
What you may
not appreciate is that at the same time, the population of children under 20
will keep on growing, to 94mm from 80mm, a steady growth year by year.
Where are
these kids coming from? The Boomers had kids, who have given us an echo boom,
and the echo boomers are now about to give us an echo's echo boom. Plus the growing cadre of immigrants and
recent arrivals to our shores have more kids per family than do we prior
arrivals.
Now, what
are the needs? For we elders, as we edge
over 75, there is going to be a major need for in-home services such as lawn
care, home maintenance and repair, cleaning, shopping, transportation, meal
preparation, medication management, and health care navigation.
And then,
for those who no longer can live at home: retirement home services, assisted
living, skilled nursing and the most expensive care of all -- dementia
care. While we are learning how to keep
the body healthy and alive longer, we haven't yet learned how to keep the brain
healthy.
Those over
85 will be getting increasingly whifty.
(That's a word coined by Helen Holmquist, my mother-in-law, and I find
it wonderfully useful. I dare say many of us know somebody who is getting
whifty.) Dementia care typically runs over
$150 per day, or $56,000 per year, and if coupled with other needs, care can
soar into the hundreds of thousands.
I don't need
to remind you that the bulk of these coming elders have not saved anywhere near
enough to pay for all the services they will need in their extended years.
Now what of
these youngsters? Needs?: schoolrooms, books, teachers, especially those
skilled in dealing with English-as-Second Language kids. Pre-school facilities and teachers. Parenting and family planning counselors. These kids are our country's future, and they
must be educated. stimulated and developed into capable citizens or America is
doomed to second-rate status. And they
ought not to be burdened with student debts!
Note again
these growth rates: elders increasing at near 5% per year. Education and geriatric care costs rising at 6
- 8% per year. And our economy's growth? Something like 3% per year. We are not going to grow our way out of this
bind. At today's per pupil and per elder
costs of education and elderly care, it just doesn't compute.
So, how are
these needs to be met? How do we avoid a
destructive competition for scarce dollars between the elderly and the parents
of the young? Those two groups in 2025
will make up around 46% of US population, leaving just over half of citizens to work and
pay the bills.
Sixty-four millions
over 65 vs. about 44million parents of those 90mm kids.
Who's going to win that battle at the polls? School bond issues,
teachers' salaries, class sizes; it's the education dollar that will be most in jepardy.
I am
not going to get into liberals vs. conservatives, or progressives vs.
libertarians. For this is all of us -- everybody's'
problem. It is our community's problem
-- governments, business, not-for-profit social organizations, charities, universities
(especially teacher's colleges), foundations, families and individuals --
everyone's.
Starting
now, we as a society must devote resources to development of new ways of
delivering education and elderly services. We need research, ingenuity, diligence,
imagination and experimentation to find innovative ways to improve the
productivity of our education dollar and of our geriatric services dollar. We need to think outside the box and take
risks.
We need the
courage to toss out the current structures and processes of our delivery
systems where they prove to be inadequate.
For if we fail, there will come an ugly, inter-generational tug of war
that might well rend apart this American experiment of building a diverse, open
and accessible society
of comity, and
justice and opportunity.
So think:
what is each of our role in this? To the younger reader: are you saving
enough? Do you have long-term care
insurance? Are you setting aside funds
for your kids education? Are your
parents prepared?
For us old
farts: are we willing to pay a larger share through taxes and donations? Are we willing to lobby for reduced defense
spending to free up discretionary dollars?
Are we willing to buck entrenched teacher and social worker unions? Are we willing to lobby legislators to
increase tuition support and more teacher training? Are we willing to toss out mossy incumbents
committed to defending the status quo and set aside ideologues and reward
pragmatic problem solvers?
Are we
willing to increase donations to social service organizations and churches and
the like, and to make bequests from our estates? Are we willing to fund-raise
for colleges and high schools and school foundations and elderly service
organizations? Are we willing to go on
boards and help turn these Queen Marys of education and health care systems?
In my case, I
work as Trustee of a retirement community, and see these elderly needs met
every day, and families stretch to do so.
Ann's and my care will probably be covered by savings and insurance; the
uncertainty is that matter of whifty. I
have also been working on new models of elderly services, specifically a new
Seattle village -- Wider Horizons.
But of most importance
are our kids: grand-kids Christopher and Ella will be coming out of school a
decade from now; Parker, Max and Molly will be in high school; my great-granddaughter
Natalie will be in middle school; and Peter and Corriell and Liza may well have
kids in pre-school or entering elementary school. All of them
benefit from middle and upper middle class family structures; there are other millions
who do not have that support and commitment to education, and who need our attention
even more. The education needs of all --
upper, middle and lower class -- that must be uppermost.
Help alert others to the bind that we must all work to avoid
over the next decade -- for the sake of your children and grandchildren -- and
mine.
