Sunday, December 28, 2014

My Eighties -- My Mission


Most of my college mates, the class of '56, have crossed over the threshold, as I did this Fall, into a ninth decade.  That gives one pause for reflection....

My seventies were grand -- the happiest and most productive ages of my life.  Life with Ann (over a quarter-century now) has been rich and joyous.  Watching our (shared) five children wrestle with the challenges of this complicated age, our nine grandchildren come into their own and one great-grand begin her childhood adventure has been enormously humbling.  I am glad not to be raising kids in these times of drug temptations, sexual transparency, inequality of opportunity and all the rest parents deal with.  Barbara and I did the best we could; Ann and Rob likewise.  One always wishes I could-'a, should-'a been a better Dad or Mom, but the offspring thrive despite our misdeeds.  My sons, step sons and son-in-law are role models for Dads -- the Dad I wish I had been.  They are great family-men.

As for my eighties, I intend to be equally happy and, yes, productive.  So long as we continue learning, we still have much to give.  I've given up mastering a new language; higher math eludes me; but history and the threats to our public square engage my attention and energy, as does living up to my handle -- trusteecoach.  Much of the last decade was guided by a personal mission statement, drafted after having drifted through the first year of retirement.  It has been my rudder since:

My Missions
First, to enrich Ann's and my shared lives.
Second, to increase the effectiveness of selected service organizations by investing time 
and leveraging my experience in strategy, marketing and management of innovation.

But having crossed the threshold into this new decade of my eighties, I think it needs some revision:

First, to enrich and savor Ann's and my shared lives.
Second, to increase the effectiveness of selected not-for-profit organizations by investing 
time and energy, and by recruiting the next generation of leaders to make their 
talents available to this critical segment of our commonweal.


So, Happy New Year to you who are reading this.  Keep moving.   May we all thrive and prosper in 2015.

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Needed: a Mission Statement for America

Perhaps a way out of this political quagmire we have got ourselves into is to develop and adopt a mission statement for America.  One might argue that we have such in our Declaration of Independence and Constitution, but what we don't have is a concise, easily grasped statement of what our mission is, and what we envision for ourselves.

Since retiring eight years ago, I have been devoting considerable time and energy to four not-for-profit enterprises, two of which have highly-evolved processes of mission-driven planning.  For example, Horizon House's mission statement provides the guidance principle from which all else follows:
                Horizon House is a dynamic retirement community dedicated to dignified aging,
                life fulfillment and service to the broader community.
From this are derived Horizon House's long-term goals.  From those, the strategies and then short-term objectives and action plans.  But in all four organizations, the benefit of a clearly understood mission provides a keel and rudder for their activities (an apt metaphor, as one of them is the Mount Baker Rowing Club.)

Mission-driven organizations thrive, as my experience attests and as Jim Collins' Stanford studies demonstrate.  Whether for-profit or not-for-profit, strongly held missions nourish and sustain success.
 
It works for people, too; I have a personal mission statement.  Soon after retiring and feeling rather at a loss at having no deadlines to meet or projects to complete, I listened to Scott Oki talk at a charity luncheon about his first few years in retirement.   He said he had felt a bit aimless.  Then, he realized that for Microsoft he had helped Gates craft a succinct mission statement and helped define their long term goals derived therefrom; "to put a computer on every desk and in every home" became the guiding light for the first three decades of Microsoft's success.  For the retired Oki, that realization was a flash of insight: he needed a mission statement for Scott Oki's retirement.  So he sat down, took stock of himself, and wrote one. 

Oki's light bulb went off in my head at that luncheon.  Ann and I were leaving for a ski trip a few days later.  Over three or four evenings, I thought through and crafted my own mission statement.  It has guided me in retirement ever since.  Fletch Waller's mission is:
First, to enrich Ann's and my shared lives.  Second, to increase the effectiveness of
selected service organizations by investing time and my experience in analysis,
marketing and management of innovation.
Ever since drafting and adopting that mission, my retirement has been happy, busy and fully rewarding.

Mission-driven enterprises (and people) have a touchstone for setting priorities and resolving competing demands on resources.  Mission statements help balance interests of various, sometimes conflicting constituencies.  Mission statements remind members of the organization or enterprise what they are about.  Mission statements create community and common cause.

From mission are derived long term goals and strategies, and from them, short term objectives which represent mile-posts along the way.   

So what about a Mission Statement for America, an effort to collect from diverse interests viewpoints on what we aspire to be and do?  As hard as it might be to reach consensus on a single, succinct mission statement would not the effort create exchange, conversation and listening to one another?  And if we could coalesce around a simple statement of purpose, would that not help counter the polarization that has torn us apart and be antidote to the sense of impotence that infects so many fellow citizens?

Here's my first crack at one:
                America welcomes and empowers citizens to reach their full potential, protecting
                them, freeing them, encouraging them and supporting them to pursue their dreams 
                and ambitions. 


If you want to play, don't send me e-mails; just hit the comment below.  You may be asked to open a Google account, which is free, simple to do, and non-intrusive.  Then react and share. And sign up to follow if you want to see what others are chiming in with.   Let's get the conversation started.

Friday, October 31, 2014

The Differences Between Dis-engagement, Non-intervention and Isolationism

My pieces on disengaging militarily from the Middle East have been characterized as neo-isolationist by several friends, associates and correspondents.  Most have failed to note the qualifier "militarily." Let's examine what the differences might be and clarify what I propose.

Isolationism is to pull in behind our borders and take no active role in the affairs of the world.  It often is accompanied by protective tariffs and withdrawal from world trade.  Nothing could be more wishful, fruitless and, even if feasible in this inter-connected world, more suicidal.  Isolation is not an option, and is an ignorant stance even were it possible to achieve.

Non-intervention means not stepping in where we are not invited.  It doesn't mean not caring, or watching, or learning, or listening and collecting intelligence.  Noses in; fingers out.

Dis-engagement militarily is just that -- not participating by arming or taking part in military actions among the various combatants (among whom we cannot discriminate between good guys and baddies; friends, fair-weather friends, or foes; democrats or autocrats or theocrats; and familial-ists, clan-ists, tribal-ists, sectarianists or secularists or nationalists or whatever.)  This is feasible, but it does NOT mean we disengage from the countries of the Middle East. 

We can and should, we must, engage:
  • In ameliorating the human damage to those caught in the middle or displaced and on the run by proffering humanitarian aid, i.e., shelters, food and water, medicines and first aid supplies, to any and all sides, including cautious green card access to our shores.
  • By guaranteeing the territorial integrity of the four nations which are maintaining some semblance of representative government, civil society and rule of law -- Israel, Turkey, Lebanon and Kurdistan (yes, recognizing Kurdistan as an independent state) -- and backing up those guarantees with military might and boots on the ground.
  • By shifting our economy from military production to peace products.  Instead of selling our military hardware to and lavishing military assistance on unstable countries and kingdoms, instead offer to gift infrastructure products, such as desalinization plants, irrigation systems, hospitals, MRI's, education supplies, whatever so long as their US production under government contract stimulates the US economy and aids our exports.  A fully equipped hospital costs about a tenth of the price we pay for an F-16.
  •  And by listening -- proactively listening to all sides and all comers -- in the UN, in our diplomatic outposts, in international forums.  Listening is an art at which we have been out of practice and gotten rusty,  to put it mildly (e.g., not hearing Putin obsess about expanding NATO eastward and not hearing Cuba suggest they'd welcome an opening to reduce dependency on Russia and Venezuela.)  Listening is the best medicine for hubris.

I know the accusations: that I'm naively and politically wishful; that we can't afford military R&D without export sales; that we would be abdicating to China, Russia, The Ukraine, The Czech Republic, Brazil and Israel lucrative weapons markets; that lavishing free stuff on unstable regimes is just throwing money away and creating new fields of baksheesh to harvest; that China and Russia would rush in to establish alliances with these sheiks (a blessing to be wished on one's worst enemy); that Iran's influence in the region would be strengthened; that I am a dreamy idealist ignoring real politic; etc., etc. etc. 


Yes, yes, but none of that dissuades me from believing that step-by-step we could and should move toward this stance, starting by pulling out militarily and letting the middle easterners, particularly the Persians and Arabs, play out their bloody, self-destructive conflicts on their own.  And none of that dissuades me from  believing that in the long run, America would be strengthened, economically and morally, throughout the world, by so doing.  The Swiss are neutral; the Norwegians are neutral; is it not possible for a powerful giant also to be neutral?  While fully engaged?  And acting as an honest broker of peace?  That would be listening to our better angels and to the dreams of our founding founders.  That could be a vision behind which a broad swath of Americans could coalesce.  That is a foreign policy I could believe in.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

A Simpletons Guide Out of the Middle East

The Mideast may be the exception to the rule that simple answers to complicated problems are always wrong.  It seems to this simpleton that for one hundred years or more, the people of that convulsed part of earth have been more consumed by clan and tribal and sectarian struggles for supremacy than by any sense of or pride in nationhood.  The only peace they have endured is under the thumb of a caliph or a dictator like Saddam or Kaddafi, or under an Ayatollah or a Shah or an Emperor or whatever.  And too often the thumb belongs to a member of a minority -- a sure formula for eventual resurgence of violence and bloodshed.  So what are we thinking mucking about in this mess?

Already, many Syrians are railing against our attacks on IS or ISIL or ISIS or whatever because it is helping Assad redirect his fire against the (majority) Sunni rebels -- whom we hope, hope, hope are moderates dedicated to self-government and rule of law.  Fat chance, that.... And the Ayatollah must be grinning from ear to ear as we hammer away at his hated Sunnis and get further drawn into certain blow-back. 

There are three nations that are reasonably self-governed.  In the case of Israel, it is trending toward mid-eastern style authoritarianism.  In the case of Turkey, "reasonably" may be at risk, but relative to other mid-east areas, it's done a good job for nearly one hundred years at developing a structure of law and giving rights to all citizens -- yes, including women.  In the case of Iraqi Kurdistan, not yet a nation but an independently governed region aspiring to nationhood, it's only 20 years old or so, but it too exhausted tribal struggles to develop accommodating legislative processes and a multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian governing structure.  And so far, Kurdistan proves successful at growing its economy and providing an improving quality of life for its inhabitants.

Keep in mind that the boundaries of the other "nations" in this huge region were arbitrarily drawn by non-Arabs just about one hundred years ago, with no regard for and too little knowledge of the tribes, clans, families and sects of the people they were circumscribing.  What is sacred about these imposed boundaries that we must insist on their maintenance?

The simpleton here suggests that we back Turkey (which we are bound by NATO treaty to do) and support a declaration of independence by Kurdistan, providing each financial, military, and humanitarian aid ... and leave the Arab rest to fight it out among themselves.  Will it be bloody?  Yes.  Humanitarian crimes?  Yes.  Women oppressed?  Yes.  Millions of refugees moving about seeking help?  Yes.  Does this include Palestine and Lebanon and Egypt?  Yes.  

And what of Israel? That's a huge emotional and policy pit that this simpleton cannot fathom except to know that a two state solution has been made impossible by Israel's expropriations and that a sectarian democracy is an oxymoron. Yes, we need to slowly and steadily disengage there too.  Israel can stand on its own feet and is going its own way.

Better to watch the chaos until it burns itself out than to be drawn into muddles we don't understand, with unreliable allies and where every move we make delights one and pisses off innumerable others who grow to hate and to seek revenge.

A simpleton's answer to be sure, but perhaps the better of all bad options in this case.


PS: to those who say we created ISIL or broke Iraq so must fix it, the simpleton says we didn't teach Sunnis to hate Shiites, or Persians and Turks to hate Greeks, or Moslems to feel superior to Copts, or Wahhabis to believe all others are unenlightened inferiors, or Jews to believe in a covenant right to seize Arab lands ... read your history.  Step back and leave untouched what one cannot fathom.  And to those who say 'but the women, the women:'  All we can do is improve the way we treat our fellow women, with true respect and full equality, and let our example lead others to change; neither the sword nor the sermon will do the job.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Society's Coming Tug of War

Two groups of Americans may be on a collision course -- parents of kids and elders.  By 2025 --if we don't change course -- the American body politic may be embroiled in a titanic, inter-generational struggle over scarce resources: money and talents for the geriatric care of elders and/or for the education of children.

The coming growth in the population of elders has been well publicized, but consider the numbers:
in the next decade, the population of Americans over sixty-five will balloon to 64mm from today's 38mm, an average annual growth of nearly 5%. The population of those over eighty will jump to 15mm from 9mm today, a growth of near 7% per year!  And as you know, the costs of caring for those elders grows exponentially faster.

What you may not appreciate is that at the same time, the population of children under 20 will keep on growing, to 94mm from 80mm, a steady growth year by year.

Where are these kids coming from? The Boomers had kids, who have given us an echo boom, and the echo boomers are now about to give us an echo's echo boom.  Plus the growing cadre of immigrants and recent arrivals to our shores have more kids per family than do we prior arrivals.

Now, what are the needs?  For we elders, as we edge over 75, there is going to be a major need for in-home services such as lawn care, home maintenance and repair, cleaning, shopping, transportation, meal preparation, medication management, and health care navigation. 

And then, for those who no longer can live at home: retirement home services, assisted living, skilled nursing and the most expensive care of all -- dementia care.  While we are learning how to keep the body healthy and alive longer, we haven't yet learned how to keep the brain healthy.

Those over 85 will be getting increasingly whifty.  (That's a word coined by Helen Holmquist, my mother-in-law, and I find it wonderfully useful. I dare say many of us know somebody who is getting whifty.)  Dementia care typically runs over $150 per day, or $56,000 per year, and if coupled with other needs, care can soar into the hundreds of thousands. 

I don't need to remind you that the bulk of these coming elders have not saved anywhere near enough to pay for all the services they will need in their extended years.

Now what of these youngsters? Needs?: schoolrooms, books, teachers, especially those skilled in dealing with English-as-Second Language kids.  Pre-school facilities and teachers.  Parenting and family planning counselors.  These kids are our country's future, and they must be educated. stimulated and developed into capable citizens or America is doomed to second-rate status.  And they ought not to be burdened with student debts!

Note again these growth rates: elders increasing at near 5% per year.  Education and geriatric care costs rising at 6 - 8% per year.  And our economy's growth?  Something like 3% per year.  We are not going to grow our way out of this bind.  At today's per pupil and per elder costs of education and elderly care, it just doesn't compute.

So, how are these needs to be met?  How do we avoid a destructive competition for scarce dollars between the elderly and the parents of the young?  Those two groups in 2025 will make up around 46% of US population, leaving just over half of citizens to work and pay the bills.

Sixty-four millions over 65 vs. about 44million parents of those 90mm kids.  Who's going to win that battle at the polls? School bond issues, teachers' salaries, class sizes; it's the education dollar that will be most in jepardy.

I am not going to get into liberals vs. conservatives, or progressives vs. libertarians.  For this is all of us -- everybody's' problem.  It is our community's problem -- governments, business, not-for-profit social organizations, charities, universities (especially teacher's colleges), foundations, families and individuals -- everyone's.

Starting now, we as a society must devote resources to development of new ways of delivering education and elderly services.  We need research, ingenuity, diligence, imagination and experimentation to find innovative ways to improve the productivity of our education dollar and of our geriatric services dollar.  We need to think outside the box and take risks.

We need the courage to toss out the current structures and processes of our delivery systems where they prove to be inadequate.  For if we fail, there will come an ugly, inter-generational tug of war that might well rend apart this American experiment of building a diverse, open and accessible society
of comity, and justice and opportunity. 

So think: what is each of our role in this? To the younger reader: are you saving enough?  Do you have long-term care insurance?  Are you setting aside funds for your kids education?  Are your parents prepared? 

For us old farts: are we willing to pay a larger share through taxes and donations?  Are we willing to lobby for reduced defense spending to free up discretionary dollars?  Are we willing to buck entrenched teacher and social worker unions?  Are we willing to lobby legislators to increase tuition support and more teacher training?  Are we willing to toss out mossy incumbents committed to defending the status quo and set aside ideologues and reward pragmatic problem solvers?

Are we willing to increase donations to social service organizations and churches and the like, and to make bequests from our estates? Are we willing to fund-raise for colleges and high schools and school foundations and elderly service organizations?  Are we willing to go on boards and help turn these Queen Marys of education and health care systems? 

In my case, I work as Trustee of a retirement community, and see these elderly needs met every day, and families stretch to do so.  Ann's and my care will probably be covered by savings and insurance; the uncertainty is that matter of whifty.  I have also been working on new models of elderly services, specifically a new Seattle village -- Wider Horizons. 

But of most importance are our kids: grand-kids Christopher and Ella will be coming out of school a decade from now; Parker, Max and Molly will be in high school; my great-granddaughter Natalie will be in middle school; and Peter and Corriell and Liza may well have kids in pre-school or entering elementary school. All of them benefit from middle and upper middle class family structures; there are other millions who do not have that support and commitment to education, and who need our attention even more.  The education needs of all -- upper, middle and lower class -- that must be uppermost.   

Help alert others to the bind that we must all work to avoid over the next decade -- for the sake of your children and grandchildren -- and mine.   

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

A World of Weeping


The world is nearly too much...
... nearly too much to bear this summer.
A world of weeping.

Too few children laughing,
certainly not children of color...
Honduran, Syrian, Gazan, Liberian....

Riding north on freight cars, cowering in bunkers, 
huddled in hospitals and mosques, 
squatting in squalid refugee camps 
where no refuge is to be found.

No adult laughs
cringing through today's papers:
monstrous the hatreds, violence, disease and deceit.

Out on the patio
a Pileated Woodpecker feeds its fledgling, 
already as large as he.

A moment of nurture,
a moment of peace... 
my moment of escape
from a world of weeping.


Saturday, July 19, 2014

History, Geography, Empathy

My friend Lionel, from the Isle of Wight, passed on this quote from Alan Furst, the American historical novelist:
            (We) aren’t good at understanding history. I know a woman who teaches history in a D.C. high school and she says Americans are ahistorical. They just aren’t taught history. How much we have to pay for that I don’t know, but you do have to pay for that.  …  You shouldn’t have a population that doesn’t understand history, or geography…
Lionel went on to say "This never occurred to me before. Do you think this is perhaps why the US struggles with coherence in its foreign policy ( to put it mildly)? Would a knowledge of history and geography somehow make Americans less fearful of those they do not understand, generate an enhanced tolerance of those who do not think exactly like they do?"

I've been thinking about Lionel's observation while reading -- better yet, wincing through -- the daily papers: we're sending "advisors" to Syria a la Kennedy in '63; we're surprised by Putin, whose ambitions have been as naked as his shirtless PR and as telegraphed as was Hitler's in Mein Kampf; we're bewildered at the unfolding sectarian chaos in Iraq; we have long failed to grasp Afghan's hatred of foreign occupiers; we continue to forge entangling alliances with small Baltic  and SE Asian states -- as short-sighted as was Tsarist Russia's ties with Serbia; we cling to a naive hope that Israel is really willing to give up the west bank; we defend arbitrarily contrived borders separating "nations" that are nations in name only, where nationality is trumped by clans, tribes and families.  Looking back a bit: our disdain for Ho Chi Minh and belief in the myth that Viet Nam was an allay and satellite of China; sending troops to Siberia in 1920 to help restore our autocrat in Russia and displace their autocrat; Bremer and his earnest young, freshly-scrubbed nation builders designing a "democracy" to drop full born onto Baghdad; and on and on.... Yes, our actions certainly do not exhibit lessons learned from history. And to add to our cluelessness, we tend to be a short-memory society; the Arabs, Persians, Greeks, Turks, Irish, Armenians whose passions inflame -- they are long-memory societies.  Perhaps it takes being oppressed for generations to develop and nurture long-memory.

It's not that we don't create historians and experts well versed in other cultures.  We do.  But politicians are mainly interested in managing their stock: herding us, calming us; crooning to us to keep us from stampeding.  (And lobbyists are interested not in policy but in keeping their stock -- the politicians -- well fed and watered and sheared on a regular basis.) One example of how historians and experts are treated in the chambers of policy: Paul Kattenburg, a specialist on Viet Nam since the early '50's, by '63 heading the State Dept.'s Vietnam Task Force.  In a meeting of the National Security Council that fall, after returning from two months in the field, he recommended that we withdraw from Viet Nam.  He was thereafter excluded from all NSC meetings touching on SE Asia, and by '64 had been transferred to a post in Guyana.  Administration politicians do not want to hear that the emperor has no clothes (perhaps fearing that they don't either?)  Journalists and commentators are little better; they find the nuances and complications of experts' knowledge too messy to attract ratings or grow circulation. 

Maybe we're not well educated in history but we are not indifferent.  No.  Histories and historical novels regularly top the best seller lists and history even has its own TV channel.  Sure, we like it simple and dramatic, but we love history and are no less interested in it than other peoples.

Now geography?  That's a different story.  Not just maps and boundaries, but how the terroir shapes peoples and cultures -- in that most Americans are ignoramuses.  Teaching geography (and civics and music) have especially suffered in this no-child-left-behind era. But to return to Lionel's question: would knowledge of history or even geography make Hondurans less needy in our eyes, or Somalis less foreign, or Koreans less driven, or the Japanese less ambiguous?  Not likely.

History may provide perspective, geography some understanding, but that is not enough to engender tolerance of foreignness and a willingness to try to understand others.  The necessary ingredient is empathy.  Empathy is the building block of human relationships, the lubricant that allows us to live together in communities.

Empathy is an ability, but subtle to define. My favorite definition, from psychologist D M Berger is The capacity to know emotionally what another is experiencing from within the frame of reference of that other person.  It is the capacity to sample the feeling and grasp the intention of another, to put one's self in another's shoes.

Empathy differs from sympathy or pity.  Sympathy is the feeling of compassion or concern for another, the wish to see them better off or happier. Pity is feeling that another is in trouble and needs help as they cannot fix their problems themselves, often described as "feeling sorry" for someone.  But empathy is entering into the feelings and motives of another without losing your own emotional and cognitive identity. You can be empathetic without pity; you can be sympathetic—feeling for – but not truly empathetic.

Empathy thus involves both an emotional and a cognitive element.  That's where history and geography might help -- the cognitive understanding of others' intentions -- an understanding that others' actions are goal-directed and arise from particular attitudes, desires and background values.

Empathy is a natural ability.  Infants of 8 or 9 months begin to discern that others’ minds are different from their own, to develop what psychologists term a 'theory of mind'.  At one year, infants have some rudiments of empathy, in the sense that they understand that, just like their own actions, other people's actions have goals.  And by the age of two, children normally begin to display the fundamental behaviors of empathy by having an emotional response that corresponds with that of another person. Sometimes, toddlers will comfort others or show concern for them, and show an understanding of the other’s goals or motives – what they want or intend.

Not only is it natural in humans, but it occurs in higher mammals.  Chimpanzees are empathetic.  I asked Jane Goodall – yes, that Jane Goodall –whether chimps empathize with each other and with humans.  She told me that chimps empathize within their families, and sometimes with others among their troop.  But with strangers they do not.  With humans, she said, in captivity or in her case with her troop in Gombe, they will empathize with a keeper they have come to trust or someone they have come to regard as part of their family.  But generally, chimps do not empathize with strangers. Neither do we.

Considerable evidence exists that women have a higher “empathy quotient” or EQ, than do men – but whether that is natural or culturally determined is so far unknown.  Men, conversely, show a higher systematizing quotient (SQ), the categorization and analytic assessment of others. 

In most of us, empathy can be developed – it can be reinforced by practice and positive feedback or suppressed by indoctrination, brain washing and negative feedback.  It is a skill that gradually develops throughout life, and which improves the more contact we have with the person with whom one empathizes.

Empathetic engagement helps one to understand and anticipate the behavior of another. Empathy increases understanding and trust – both ways.  When people empathize with each other, bonding and trust and comfort are created.  Empathy improves relationships.  In fact, I contend, our relational, transactional, communal society is dependent on empathy – shared values, feelings, the ability to walk in each other’s shoes.

Ethics are grounded in empathy. Morality stems from a basis of empathic response.  In situations of frequent and close contact, as with family or friends, our moral obligation seems stronger to us than with strangers at a distance. So our challenge is to extend the limits, to span distance and infrequency with empathy bridges. 

Does this not sound familiar?  Are these not the foundations of all the world’s major religions? Do unto others what you would have them do unto you? Go, and care for one another? 

The United States is an increasingly heterogeneous society.  In one more generation, because of immigration and birth rate differentials, Americans of color – Asians, Latinos, Africans – will make up the majority of our nation. We white Anglos still will be the plurality cohort but I suggest that the strains and potential for conflict that this trend portends can only be relieved by increasing the empathy quotient of our society – not just among families and our “tribes” but across ethnic and color lines. 

Empathy can be encouraged, trained, and strengthened.  Reward children for showing their natural empathy instead of telling them “oh, we don’t associate with those people”, or “those people are not to be trusted.”  Tell young men it’s OK to care, to feel, to be vulnerably sensitive; enough of “man up", "be tough", "walk tall", "be a man.”


So yes for history, yes for geography, but even more yes for engagement and empathy.  Empathy is the lubricant of relationships, an oil we will need ever more of if we want to make this salad bowl of a nation a true community of equity and justice and productivity.  If we become a deeply empathetic society, America can truly be the world’s exceptional nation of the 21st Century.

Sunday, June 15, 2014

For God's Sake -- that's a blasphemy, not a claim -- stay out of it!

1400 years after the founding of Christianity, sectarian war broke out across Europe and raged on for 125 years.  In the Wars of Religion millions died, roughly a third of the population, from war, famine, atrocities all carried out in the name of Truth and God.  Sure, power and hegemony over land and treasure were  at issue, as was the venality of religious authorities, but religious belief was the rallying cry; the certainty that my sect has the true interpretation fuels my hatred of the heretic and justifies his or her destruction.

Imagine that an America existed in 1550 relatively as powerful then as we are today, able to project its power and intervene in Europe.  Imagine what might have happened if that hypothetical America had thrown its lot to the Protestants or to the Catholics.  What if it had to choose between Lutherans and Calvinists, or behind this and that splinter sect?  What added horrors would it have sown -- and reaped eventually upon itself?  Sectarian war among true believers can only burn itself out; "reason" cannot be imposed by outsiders, for the combatants "know they know the truth" until they confront their folly.
    
Fast forward to today: Islam was founded some 1400 years ago.  It now is becoming embroiled in sectarian civil war -- Sunnis and Shiites; Wahabis, Salafis, Alewites, Assassins, Pashtuns; Turks, Kurds, Arabs and Persians.  True believers all, and ready to kill Islamic heretics amongst them -- and yes, heathens amongst them as well, like Christians, Jews, Hindus....  True, the 1400 years is more coincidence than meaningful parallel, but maybe all religions have to go through upheavals to mature to mutual tolerance.

Does our America of today dare risk being perceived as supporting any side in this Islamic blood-bathing?  Some say yes, let's support a Shiite dictator against Sunnis and join Iran on that side; wait a minute, maybe we should support Sunni opponents of an Alawite Shiite and thus be on the opposite side from  Iran;  wait a minute,  let's support Jews who both Sunnis and Shiites hate; wait a minute, how about supporting Palestinians, half of whom are terrorists aimed at Israel, half feared by Egyptian, Jordanian and Saudi sheikhs as ready to turn on them, both halves supported by Arabs and Persians, who incidentally, distrust each other; or how about supporting Kurds, and have both Arabs and Turks in opposition?  Wait a minute ..! Wait just a damn minute!

What the hell are we doing?  What is our goal? Aren't they so busy killing each other and struggling for power and hegemony over deserts -- and yes, oil -- that these Islamic madmen aren't about to invade us or launch an attack on Americans?  Possibly, but can't we monitor that and be forewarned?  Can't we quietly threaten any sectarian leader with absolute destruction of what they hold dear?  Do we have to take sides or even risk being perceived as taking sides in fights among families, tribes, clans and sects we don't begin to understand, folks driven by hatred, folks whose values are alien to our own?  


Malaki does not merit our support, nor does Sisi, nor Rouhani, nor Karzai, nor Mashal nor Nasrallah nor Abbas  -- nor even Netanyahu in my humble, minority opinion.   We Westerners, mainly the European colonialists, thank goodness, created these unnatural nations with artificial borders.  It's Muhammad and Allah and their desert they are fighting over.  It's the "amongst us" that inflames them.  For God's sake -- that is a blasphemy, not a claim -- stay out of it!  As horrific as the bloodletting and inhumanity will be, let's stand aside holding our nose, offer humanitarian aid to any and all, and let the furor burn itself out.  

Monday, May 26, 2014

In Memoriam...

In Memoriam...
"In memoriam" is a preposition phrase requiring a following "of."  Whom are we remembering today?  Our focus is rightly on those who risked and gave their lives in answer to the our nation's call.  Families review photos and memorabilia, visit grave sites, pause and reflect and remember.

What of families in other lands?  Millions more.... Many have no grave stones to decorate, nor even know where to direct their thoughts.  But they  who suffered grievous loss do remember.  Let us be in memoriam of their soldiers, sailors, flyers, and marines-- enemies and allies alike -- as well as of our own:
                WWII    (000)                               Korea (000)                     Vietnam (000)                  
        Russian         8,700                    Chinese             ~600              North Vietnamese/VC     ~1,100
        Chinese       ~4,000                    North Korean      ~400              South Vietnamese             ~260
        German         3,900                    South Korean       217              US                                       58
        Japanese       2,100                    US                        36               South Korean                         5
        US                    407                   Turkish                    1
        British              383
        Yugoslavian     ~375
        Italian             ~300                                     Iraq(000)
        Hungarian       ~300                      Iraqi                         ~24
        French              200                      US                               5
        Canadian            45                      Coalition Allies           0.3
        Australian           40

Saturday, May 17, 2014

An Open Letter to my Graduating Grandson

My Dear Peter:

I am writing this on a Saturday night, having relished a wonderful dinner of acorn squash, asparagus, and  a well seared, marinated sirloin accompanied by a 2006 Syrah and Rousanne blend, and now sipping a 1978 Sauternes I have had with me since the early 1980's, going back to Washington, D.C.  Which all means that I am very mellow and therefore likely to be very verbose and very boring.

Your generation has cheapened the word 'awesome', making a mockery of a very wonderful emotion felt by saints and sinners alike when confronting the ineffable.  A chipper and charming young junior at Hamilton College called recently to solicit an annual fund contribution.  She asked if my address was still 6240 89th SE.   "Awesome"  she enthused when I confirmed that I still lived where I had last year.  I then played the grandfather: "Jenny, are you really struck with awe that I haven't moved in the last 12 months?   Let me give you a piece of advice.  When you interview next year for a job or entry into grad school,  for God's sake, don't sound like an over-eager, ignorant chipmunk, brightly parroting  "awesome" every time the interviewer relates some pedestrian fact about the job or school.  Sound like the educated and thoughtful young woman that I am certain you are."  She thanked me... and undoubtedly told her telephone bank compatriots about the old fart she just had on the line..

All leading to what I wish to say, Peter.   I am in awe of your academic accomplishments: a BS in Chemistry with highest honors; a BS in mathematics with highest honors; publication in a peer-reviewed journal as an undergrad; and offers of fellowships from Berkeley, MIT, Michigan, Illinois, CalTech, Wisconsin and Scripps.  And I know you are no drudge, but have a social life as well as an academic one.  Your St. Olaf's career is awesome.

Hamilton is not unlike St. Olaf.   Our motto was "Know Thyself" -- not nearly as stirring as "Fram! Fram!" perhaps (Norwegian: "Forward! Forward!") and not followed by "Christmen" for our founders were non-denominational deists striving to educate the (First Nation) Indians.   But otherwise, not dissimilar.  My pre-med academics foundered on the rocks of organic chemistry and anatomy movies at which I passed out, having PTSD from stabbing my mother the summer after my freshman year -- but that's a separate story. 

At any rate, I did go on to HBS, which in those days, more than half a century ago, was for men with gentlemen C's who could not get into Law or Medical or Divinity schools and paid through the nose for the privilege.  No fellowships for us.

So here we are half a century later.  A grandfather upon graduation of a grandson -- regardless of how accomplished the latter might be and how much in awe the former might be -- is expected to pass on some advice.  Hmm....  

Well, one: choose to associate with good people.  I made the mistake of ignoring that advice from my first boss.  Bill Anklam said "it doesn't matter how you are organized" as we argued about centralized vs. de-centralized product development, "the most important decision in business [life?] is whom you choose to associate with."  Three times I ignored his credo and arrogantly presumed that I could rise above and overcome less than good people, and three times came a cropper. 

Second: teach and coach.  I know you were tempted by Scripps because they would have required no teaching duties and left you to wallow in your research.  But I hope Berkeley makes you teach, for teaching is the best learning there is.  I have learned so much more from my "students" here in the US, in Switzerland, in China, and from those I have coached, than I ever imparted to them.  I am in their debt.  Be a teacher regardless of what you choose to do.

Lastly: enjoy and thrive.  The Waller clock is ticking away in the background, 207 years now steadily marking the passing of time.  You will likely have children in 2020 or '25.  You may be a grandfather in 2045 or '50.  Those grandchildren will be coming out of college by around 2065 or so, assuming you and your peers muddle through and mitigate all the awesome grieves we are capable of inflicting on ourselves.  And the Waller clock, God willing, will still be ticking away, merely some 260 years old. 


You thanked Ann and me for contributing to your education.  You're welcome.  But we did little -- your parents and others did so much more -- you did most of all.  Give back by continuing to accomplish, by being a good person with whom to associate, by teaching and coaching, by enjoying and thriving.  Fram! Fram!  

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

A Day To Quaff

The rain left last week.  Sunny-bright-but-cool has kept the blossoms going -- on and on.  
From the lake, pink cherry against new lime green takes your breath;
impossible to keep your head in the boat.
Tulips abound.

Today, warmth flooded in to lift the soul.
Washed cars, like any red-blooded American teen;
washed winter off skylights,
lived with doors agape.

First patio dinner -- a lovely, summer caprese salad,
a good chardonnay, children's shouts of outdoor joy
carrying in clear evening air. 

We savored, pretending not to know inconstant May yet lurks,
waiting to tease.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Last Words on Student Loans

Elizabeth Warren is getting lots of ink for her bill to reduce interest rates on outstanding student loans.  This is putting a band-aid on a hemorrhage.  Our debt-burdened future leaders and otherwise big spenders (household formation, autos, clothes and such) would still be burdened with years of debt before beginning to spend their otherwise discretionary income to drive the economic recovery.  The Feds and State legislators must find ways to relieve this generation and their successors from this debt.  Their counterparts in Germany, England, China and Japan are entering the work forces with better educations and un-hobbled with debt.

Here is The New Yorker's last word on the issue:
 

Monday, March 31, 2014

And Yet More ...

My friend, JC, professor in the Univ. of California system and lecturer in Germany, writes:
"Fletch, thank you for your comments and passing on those of Hedrick Smith. The tuition fee at UC Berkeley is now $12,864 per semester for in-state students and $22,878 for out-of-state students. The other UC campuses are on the quarter system but the yearly tuition is the same.  In sharp contrast to the UC tuition fee are the fees or lack of them in Germany. In two German states (Bavaria and Lower Saxony) the yearly fee is 500 Euros; in the other states there is no fee."

And DS passes on this:
Fletch -- Read and weep, ...if you haven't already.   David

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-b-fishbein/9-striking-similarities-b_b_5062840.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Yet More on Student Debt -- from Hedrick Smith and others

My friend Hedrick Smith (Who Stole the American Dream?) responded to my post this way:
"Hi Fletch,
       Thanks for sharing your student debt thoughts with me. 
       Couple of ideas pop up, which I may have missed, but did not see raised in your item:
     1-What portion of  the $1 trillion in student debt is generated for students in public state-run institutions across the country where most state legislatures have been cutting appropriations to their university systems, causing the institutions to raise tuition, imposing greater student debt burden on the millennial generation because our generation is not prepared to foot enough of the cost of higher education to keep it affordable for middle class  youth?
     2-Why don't we see the current generation of students as our nation's seed corn who are going to make our country more competitive in the decades ahead and are therefore worthy of an investment in their future?  China is investing in the STEM skills of its millennial generation, and the Chinese millennials will be eating our lunch unless we invest equally in our own young people. The economic future of the bulk of the millennial generation is far from assured, but if we help them do better by educating them better, they will become the generation that will be able to help pay for the retirement costs of the Baby Boomer generation, half of which is headed for poverty in their so-called golden years?
    3-The issue is: Do we think austerity or do with think Growth? So what about another GI Bill, in which we accept a public obligation to pay for a much larger part of the higher education - of kids who come from families which are getting priced out of the opportunity for higher education by our generation's refusal to keep the costs reasonable? 
      Conservatives keep talking about the fear of imposing debt on future generations - well, we are already doing that by refusing to pay the bill now and dumping it on these kids.
     Looking forward to seeing in three weeks or so - on April 21st and 22nd
    Cheers,
    Rick"

Hedrick Smith is speaking at Town Hall on the evening of April 21st; tickets are still available.

Another correspondent writes:
"Fletch,
RC

Friday, March 28, 2014

More on Student Debt...

This from another correspondent, in response to the morning paper's article on $1 trillion of student debt burdening 37 million young Americans:

"..., to continue another conversation, there is an article in today's Seattle Times, page A12, headlined, "$1 trillion in student debt is weighing down 37 million," which outlines the staggering nature and consequences of this situation.  It also went on to say that out of 20 million students who attend college each year, an estimated 12 million (60%!!!) will incur student debt.**

"So this gets to the point of your question to me in Sun Valley about what I thought of your idea of simply forgiving the $1 trillion and having the US Government absorb this debt.  You didn't accept my response, that while it might benefit the 37 million and perhaps much of the rest of the economy by freeing the debtors to begin saving as well as buying, that it simply was not workable and inherently unfair to those who already paid their debt, those who are able to pay their debt, and all of those(**see above) who will start building that debt up again because they are now in school or will go to school in the future.

"However, you certainly are on the right track to be raising the question and pondering solutions, and the extent you encourage others to also ponder, and ultimately to come up with solutions will be the true benefit of raising the question.  I read some of the other responses you included on your blog, mostly saying why they also thought it was a bad idea, but here are a couple of ideas I have on your question:

  • What are the causes and how do we address and solve the causes?  E.g. 
    • Why have college tuitions gone up faster than the rate of inflation?  
    • Are students really getting an education that will help them be productive and self-sustaining members of society?  
    • Why aren't we as a nation creating jobs that require those college educated people to fill?

  • How did this situation get to this level?
    • What role have the banks played in enabling and/or promoting student debt?  How have government policies promoted student debt?
    • Why are student debt interest rates so high?  Maybe there is a partial solution here, e.g. how about setting interest rates to zero?  In all cases of bad debts, the banks are lucky/grateful to get their principal back.
    • Should all educational programs be "fundable" by debt?  Should a history/art/music/etc. degree be something banks should (be allowed to) lend money to pay for?  In a business loan, a bank will evaluate whether or not a loan is likely to be repaid.  With government protections, banks don't have to worry about the first source of repayment which is the job and the salary the borrower will get upon graduation as a source of repayment.
    • As with all bank and credit card debt, the less likely the loan is to be repaid, the higher the interest rates the banks charge the borrower.  If the banks could only charge zero interest on defaulted loans, they would be less likely to make them in the first place.

  • Other questions:
    • What effect would less educational credit have on the situation?
    • Would colleges charge lower tuition or make more of their endowment funds available to fund students' tuitions if the students had no other way to pay for their educations?
    • Would businesses take up more of the burden of helping to educate the work force?  
    • How do immigration policies affect this situation when Indian and Chinese college graduates who may have gotten a less expensive but sufficient education can come into America and take jobs that might otherwise go to American graduates?
    • Many foreign students are educated in US universities, and then remain to take up jobs here.  How are their educations paid for - by their governments?  -by scholarships?
    • How do government and tax policies encourage American business to export jobs to India and China, leaving many college graduates without a job?

"I don't know the answers, Fletch, but thank you for raising the issue.  Maybe with more conversation like you are trying to promote, and people actively working on real and long term solutions to all of these issues (and even others I haven't thought of),  we can find an answer to this really, really important disaster that is bubbling to a head.


"All the best,"

DP

Friday, March 7, 2014

Feedback re Student Loans

Some of my correspondents do not comment on the blog; rather than signing up for a Google account, they instead respond by e-mail.  I tried to post a couple of those as comments, but apparently Blogspot does not allow me to comment on my own post.  So here are a couple of interesting responses:

From friend TW:
Fletch:
With a daughter getting near the end of residency, medical student debt is horrific. She will have borrowed approximately 250K. And - it is not just the debt, but the interest that accumulates on this debt.

I appreciate your thoughts - interesting dilemma for all medical, dental, legal folks, and graduate students who have to borrow funds for their higher education. Our graduate students at XXX borrow on average about $125/145k for their 5/6 year doctoral degree. 

And from DW, a committed Libertarian friend::
Why is This a Bad Idea?
Obviously, because it entails expropriating the property of some, not for the common good, but for the benefit of a select group, i.e., debtors.  That's theft and immoral.  I'm surprised you asked the question, Fletch.

The moral hazard argument is persuasive when it comes to bankers and speculators, but I don't think these ambitious, employed graduates would generalize relief from their debt burden to an expectation that society will step in and bail them out of any sort of future troubles.  This generation of young "debtors", unburdened, will become an engine of growth and the pool from which our future leaders will be drawn.



Saturday, March 1, 2014

Why Is This Not a Good Idea...?

Consumer debt overhangs the US economy, causing the Fed to fret, economists to natter, and Republicans to lecture.  The largest component of consumer debt is, of course, the home mortgage, which totals $7.8 trillion.  But second largest?  Not auto loans nor credit card loans nor home equity loans; student loans total more than any of those, with over one trillion dollars outstanding. By one measure, over 30% are delinquent; another report says 11%.  Whatever, delinquent or not, these loan balances, which average $29,000 per, strap some 340,000 potentially productive citizens.

What if we could relieve the banks of the worrying about and reserving for those loans; free up those indebted students to begin spending their discretionary income; and let the Fed encourage banks to do more local, commercial lending?
 
How?  Have the US Treasury assume student loans of those indebted graduates who have a full time job.  The Treasury could service the loans at existing interest rates, accelerating the principal amortization, to over five years, so as to reduce total interest payments and spread the fiscal hit. The Fed would relax and not pressure banks for extra reserves, freeing up loan capacity for the rest of the economy.

And those indebted graduates?  Unlike auto, credit card and home equity loans which recycle back into the economy in the form of spending, student loans are to buy product from  a very narrow segment of the economy -- colleges and universities -- with limited multiplier effects on the broader economy.  Free up working graduates from their debt burden and watch them move out of their parents' house, repair their car or buy new tires, treat themselves to a new outfit, dine out more often, maybe even set the date and buy that engagement ring.  These young adult, working graduates are potentially our most powerful cohort of consumers, but many (not all) are now hamstrung by debts their jobs can't support because the economy lacks sufficient demand to create more and better paying jobs.

So what's wrong with this idea?  Moderate Republicans and Democrats should love it, though deficit hawks will squawk.  Banks should like it; they get repaid from a reliable creditor and their costs of administering loans drops to near zero.  The Fed relaxes.  No government handouts to dodgy recipients for talking heads to argue about.  True, the budget gets hit with another $250 billion or so for five years.  But Chambers of Commerce will feel more vibrancy in this consumer driven economy, and tell their representatives.   And the deficit will continue to fall.  So what's not to like?

Some problems to solve: how to handle current and future students who will still need loans to complete their studies.  And where to trim other spending to satisfy the deficit hawks who will demand their pound of flesh. 

Is this doable? Perhaps; tough but feasible.  Is it a cure-all for our economy, which stumbles along at about a 2% annual rate of growth?  Hardly; we need to address minimum wage, the tax code, retraining, Pell grants and lots more to get things moving again.  But why not start by unburdening these recent and valuable graduates as one major step in the process? 

PS.  There must be something wrong with this idea, or it would have been done by now.  But if it's only the difficulty of convincing Congress and finding the will to undertake it, then let's get at it!

(These thoughts mulled over while waiting for my wife at Murphy's Bridge, skate skiing in the Wood River Valley of Idaho.)

Friday, February 28, 2014

The View From Saigon

Ann and I recently returned from two weeks in Vietnam and another week visiting the Angkor kingdom of Cambodia and R&R in Bangkok.  But it is of Vietnam that I write.  I keep a daily log on such trips, and what I wrote on February 2nd, upon leaving Vietnam, still seems apt:

One is impressed by the sheer energy of this society.  By necessity and ambition, this is an entrepreneurial culture -- communism be damned.  Tremendous loyalty to and concern for family -- ancestors, current members and successors.  Education a topmost value. People are open except in the presence of officialdom; officials are assumed to be corrupt and venal. A conservative society (no tattoos, no gay relationships acknowledged,) one that despite science and learning, still hedges its bets with superstition, ritual, and belief in luck, still buying lottery tickets and praying for good fortune from heroes, the Buddha, various Bodhisattvas, and ancestors -- and good fortune here means money.  Friend Tuyen says "it is a hard life but a happy one."

Independence: everywhere one is confronted with national heroes -- deified in temples, celebrated in memorials and marshal statues, famed for driving out conquerors and occupiers: the Chinese, the Khmer, the French, the Americans.  Even a would-be but intercepted assassin of Sect. McNamara has a large memorial in Saigon.

Uncle Ho is ever-present, but more benign and patriarchal than heroic. The "American War" is memorialized in every city, town and hamlet; captured American equipment and armaments on display at army bases and war museums; photos of atrocities and agent orange reminders; former CIA HQs proudly noted and memorialized.  Their "end-zone dance" of independence.

Viet Nam looks pretty raw as a society still sorting out what freedom means. It's just shy of forty years since they won their freedom, having fought 29 years to achieve it after declaring independence in 1946. Ours took but seven years, from 1776 to '83; how must we have looked to Great Britain at forty, in 1823?

How do we look today, from here in Saigon, with "The American War" confronting us at every turn? John McCain, in a BBC debate from Davos last week, castigated the administration for not going into Syria two years ago, citing the several thousand lives that have been lost since as though our presence would have saved them.  (Three million Vietnamese and 58,000 Americans lost their lives during our and France's "presence.")  Bob Gates blames Obama for not trusting his generals (as Johnson and Nixon trusted Harkins and Westmorland?) and attacks Biden for voting against Iraq and spreading doubt about Petraeus and the Spartan McCristal.  But from here, in the face of all the hubris and futility, Biden appears more right than ever.

What lessons does Fletch take away from Vietnam?
* Work at family.
* Work for peace.
* Be skeptical of governments.
* Ignore political-economic labels (communism, capitalism, socialism, market economy) and adopt Deng's precept: "Black cat, white cat -- what difference does it make so long as it catches mice?" 
* But do not ignore constraints on an individual's civil rights.
Hold onto good values, think right thoughts, have good intentions, act right,
* and eat good food.


The timeless rhythm of rice 
Ann explores VC tunnels in Cu Chi

Doing business on the Mekong
Yellow mums for Tet
Uncle Ho -- the "poet"

Marble Mtn. grotto
The Empire of the Motorbike